After a halt in the 3rd quarter of 2016, the unemployment rate should return to its “mild” recession until mid-2017, to reach 9.5% of the active population in france and 9.8 % with the overseas, according to an economic paper published on Thursday 15 December by Insee. Unemployment would not, therefore, by the end of the quinquennium of Francois Hollande in may 2017, its level of the beginning of the mandate. In the 2nd quarter of 2012, the unemployment rate amounted to 9.3% in france and 9.7 % in France.
After climbing last quarter at 9.7 % in metropolitan france (10.0% in France), unemployment will decline to 9.6 % (9.9% in France) at the end of 2016, and then to 9.5 % (9,8 %) in the 2nd quarter of 2017, according to the national Institute of statistics. In mid-2017, the rate of the Insee would be almost stable (- 0.1 point) over one year. This forecast is less optimistic than that published in October : Insee provided the same rates to the end of 2016.
88 000 jobs in the private sector
the expected drop in The unemployment qualified as “slight” by the Insee, would be due to a continuing net job creation by mid-2017 (104 000 in three quarters, of which 88 000 in the tradable sector), which would be sufficient to absorb the increase of the active population (+ 65 000). The increase in market-sector employment would be mainly due to services, which might be 98 000 jobs, while the staffing of the interim (+ 5 000) and construction (+ 3 000) stabiliseraient. The industry, meanwhile, would continue to destroy jobs (18 000).
But, although on the rise, the job market would slow down slightly until mid-2017, because the wealth effect of the growth in jobs linked to the measures on lowering the cost of labour would lessen, ” says Insee. The institute argues that the rise of the YEAR on the 1st January would have an impact ” low “on the job” before mid-2017 “. Result : the surplus of jobs created by the pact of responsibility and the SIEC would be no more than 20,000 jobs in the 1st half of 2017, compared to 30 000 in the 2nd half of 2016. The impact of the bonus to hiring in the SME is also of 20 000 additional jobs in early 2017.
The growth forecast lowered
In addition, Insee has lowered its growth forecast for France in 2016, in spite of the rebound in activity expected in the end of the year, which should continue at the beginning of the next year. According to the statistics institute, which released Thursday its note de conjoncture quarterly, the gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to increase by 0.4% in the fourth quarter, reaching 1.2% on the year as a whole, instead of the 1.3 percent previously anticipated.
The activity should then continue on a moderate pace, with 0.3%, and 0.4% growth in the first and second quarter of 2017, thanks to the good performance of consumption, investment and exports. With this new revision, the forecast of the Insee-which was lowered in June its growth forecast for 2016 from 1.6% to 1.3%, due to the air hole crossed by the French economy in the second quarter (-0,1%)- is similar to those of the OECD and the IMF. Insee, by contrast, is more pessimistic than the european Commission and the Bank of France, which anticipate a rise in GDP of 1.3% in 2016, and, a fortiori, that the government, which hopes to achieve 1.4% growth this year.
” the integration of The poor results in agricultural production “is the origin of this reduction of the forecast of the Insee,” says Dorian Roucher, responsible for the synthesis of the economic within the public institute. The poor weather conditions in 2016, with the floods in the spring, have severely affected the cereal crops and vineyards. And, in turn, the French exports, for the money, these last few months. “In total, the crop failure will cost you 0.2 of a percentage point to French growth. This is not negligible, ” says Mr Roucher, who believes that the jolts quarterly observed in 2016, do not question the overall momentum of recovery.
in Addition to a return to normal agricultural production, the French economy should benefit from several favourable factors, which could allow him to find some light colors in the next few months. Consumption, first of all, it should stay at a high level (+ 0.3% in the first and second quarters of 2017, after + 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2016), despite a slowdown in purchasing power linked to the slight rise in inflation.
business investment, another important engine for growth, is also expected to return to the tone (+ 0.8% in the first quarter and + 0.5% in the second), after having fallen in recent months. As for exports, they should start from the front, driven by the economic dynamism of Germany and Spain, as well as by the delivery of several major contracts in the naval and aeronautic. Foreign trade, after having cost 0.3 percentage point of GDP growth in France in 2015, and 0.7 percentage point in 2016, will then have to “stop weighing on French growth in the first half of 2017,” said Insee.