Monday, December 26, 2016

Unemployment is falling for the third consecutive month in November, Le Figaro

computer GRAPHICS – In November, the number of job seekers has decreased 30,400. It is a third consecutive decline, the never-seen since February 2008. The overall balance of the quinquennium, however, remains poor, with 574.300 unemployed since may 2012.

It is understandable why the enclosures, François Hollande, and Myriam El Khomri, minister of Labour, had organized, on Monday, the visit of the company Etna France, specialist lifts and hoists: the unemployment figures they were able to comment on this occasion proved to be flattering. The head of State saw in it “a satisfaction”. In November, the number of jobseekers registered in category A to the Pôle emploi (without any activity) has declined 30,400 in whole of France (DOM included) and 31.800 in metropolis. This is the third consecutive monthly decline, the never-seen since… February 2008, as noted in the press release of the ministry of Labour. The magnitude of the decline over three months (- 109 800 enrolled in A metropolis) is, to him, unheard of since 2001.

Other good news, youth unemployment, a priority of the five-year term, fall (- 8.8% in three months). At the end of November, France were 3.7 million unemployed in category A: it is 125.400 less than a year earlier. “The decline in unemployment in the long term”, concludes the prime minister’s office. In fact, if the radiation administrative (+ 27 %) and the inputs in training (+ 88 %), as a result of the plan to 500,000, are up sharply on a year, these two measures do not explain alone the decrease of the unemployment. The recovery in payroll employment has played a major role. “We had a 240,000 net job creation for the past 17 months”, stressed François Hollande. Nothing between the beginning of the year and the end of September, the enterprises in the trading sector have created 152.000 positions more than they have destroyed. At such a level, and taking into account the hiring of the public and parapublic sectors, the increase of the active popul ation is absorbed, and unemployment declines.

Incontestablement the growth has become richer in jobs in France: so that he had to, before the crisis, it reached 1.5% for the unemployment rate falling, a rise in GDP of 1.2 % will be enough this year. The Insee provides the kick a new decline in the unemployment rate by June 2017, to 9.8 %. The measures taken by the executive to lower the cost of the work YEAR, reduction of social charges, bonuses, hiring for SMES have ended up paying. This is what advance the Medef in its press release.

However, it would be hazardous to declare victory. First of all, because the number of people with small jobs, but looking for another position, and title registered as job-seekers in category B and C, has increased both in November and over three months. In other words, the return-to-work also takes place via positions precarious. This movement has not prevented the total number of job seekers, by category ABC, back on for three months. But it can produce bursts: for example, in November, the members in ABC have increased (+ 17.400).

in addition, more than 50 years are still more likely to be unemployed (+ 1.8% on a three-month ABC). And the long-term unemployment has been stagnant between September and November. In short, the structural weaknesses of the labour market remain. And it is still too early to say if the plan of 500 000 further education and training, which needs to educate people away from the job, will have a beneficial effect in the long term. Finally, and most importantly, the overall balance of the quinquennium remains disastrous, with 574 300 unemployed in category A since may 2012. The inversion of the unemployment curve, promised by François Hollande, is well produced… but too late.


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