The number of job seekers without any activity has strongly decreased for the third consecutive month, the never-seen since 2008. François Hollande has welcomed a decline of “more than 100 000″ unemployed since the beginning of 2016.
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This is a first since the beginning of the quinquennium of Francois Hollande. According to the statistics released, Monday, December 26, by the ministry of labour, the number of job seekers without activity (category A) decreased in November for the third time in a row, from 3 478 800 in October (on the mainland) to 3,447 million last month – is -31 800. It is necessary to go back before the crisis, caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers eight years ago, to find a decrease over a longer period : from may 2005 to February 2008, the unemployment had receded, but continuously, in france, to pass under the bar of two million.
After reaching a peak in February 2016 (3,591 million), the number of unemployed is therefore reduced to 144 000. On the last three months, the decline is around 110 000, the largest quarterly decline since early 2001, according to the ministry of labour.
The executive was evidently not done pray to stage these good figures. Mr. Holland had the intention to rely, on Monday afternoon, during a visit to a business in Taverny (Val-d’oise), to show that the policy pursued since coming to office in the Elysée had – finally – managed to reverse the curve of unemployment. The head of State has hailed a drop in the ” over 100 000 “ unemployed since the beginning of 2016.
positive Trend for the less than 25 years
The trend also turns out to be very good, for less than twenty-five years : their number, in the category A (metropolitan), has declined from nearly 11,000 in November and by almost 50 000 since the beginning of the year (with-9.5 %). But the unemployed over fifty years, have seen their numbers starting to increase again (+0.2 per cent). Just like those who are in search of a position for at least a year (+0.2% is also, almost 2,579 million people on the whole of France, including overseas). Other results, that bring shades less laughing at the overall picture : the number of job seekers who have occupied a post in the last month (categories B and C), continues to progress. So if we operate on the three categories A, B and C, the figures are tilted to the upside in November (+0.3 per cent) as well as on a year (+0,5 %), while they fly from 3.4 % in one year for the single class – the one that is the most verbose.
so far, the government sees a positive dynamic in all of these indicators. They are also in line with the improvement in the Insee observes on the job front. In the third quarter, the workforce in the private sector (excluding agriculture) increased by a little more than 57 000, under the effect – in large part – from the boom of temporary employment (+5 % on the third quarter and even +8% in one year). The service companies are on an upward slope (+26 600 in absolute value, an increase of 0.5% in the three-month and 1.8 % year on year).
industry remains a black point
A large black point remains : the industry, which, over the past fifteen years, destroyed more jobs than it creates (-4 700 on the second-to-last quarter of 2016 ; -26 200 in a year). But the trend, overall, is favourable : the third quarter of 2015 third quarter of 2016, the battalions of employees in the private companies rose to almost 179 000. The performance could even be a little better, from January to December 2016, with nearly 190 000 additional people employed in the private sector, according to the latest note de conjoncture Insee. A dynamism that had not been observed since the beginning of the 2008 crisis. Suddenly, the unemployment rate is expected – very slightly – back next year, rising to 9.8 % in mid-2017 on the whole territory (including overseas), compared with 10% in the third quarter of 2016.
These results are encouraging and may, at least in part, be put to the credit of the policy of the government : reductions in labour costs (due to, first, the tax credit for competitiveness and employment and the Covenant of responsibility), the granting of a bonus at hiring for companies with fewer than 250 people… in The context, also, played a lot in favour of our economy : cheap oil, low interest rates, euro/dollar exchange rate favourable to exports tricolor.