Monday, December 26, 2016

Unemployment : 3rd month of decline expected, a level not seen since February 2008 – Obs

The year 2016 would end it well on the front of the unemployment ? This Monday at 18 hours, the government will reveal the number of people registered with Pôle emploi at the end of November, at the end of a year that has seen finally reverse the unemployment curve. At the end of October, the Pôle emploi identified in metropolitan France 3,48 million people without any activity, either 11.700 unemployed less than a month (-0,3%). A slight decrease occurred after a drastic decline in September (-66.300 unemployed).

The positive trend observed in recent months will she be confirmed ? A sign suggests : the head of State will travel to 17 hours in the company Etna France, Taverny (Val-d’oise), with the minister of Labour Myriam El Khomri, revenue and especially of his family vacation. “Le Figaro” says that the output has been pre-programmed by the Elysée, which has the figures of November since Friday night.

If a third month of consecutive decline occurred in November, this would be a first since the crisis of 2008. But these statistics on a monthly basis, subject to the vagaries of administration, have played a lot of yo-yo lately.

a Promise kept… too late

Since the beginning of 2016, 106.800 unemployed people have left the ranks of the unemployed. And the Insee, the other thermometer in unemployment, has seen its rate fall by 0.4 percentage point to 9.7% in mainland france. The inversion of the curve, including François Hollande, had made a condition of a new nomination in 2017, thus well established. “Le Figaro” also calculates that “of the 14 reflux monthly observed in 54 months of the Hollande presidency (or 1 drop on average every 4 months), 7 have taken place over the last 12 months”.

But this reflux happens three years after the promise of the president of the Republic, and timidly. It was admitted on the 1st of December, when the announcement of the waiver :

“The results arrive, later than I had announced, I agree, but they are there [...]. Unemployment is finally decreasing, but it remains at a level that is too high, and I measure that this situation can be unbearable for our fellow citizens living in poverty.”

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winners and losers

The reflux affects mainly young : on a year 43.200 job seekers without any activity to less than 25 years have left the lists of Pole employment (8.2 per cent). The number of long term unemployed, whose number had constantly increased since the middle of 2008, has also declined (-0,9% year on year), but unemployment increases among senior (+1,6%).

categories B and C of the Pôle emploi, where job seekers engaged in a small business, in contrast, have progressed over a year (respectively +2.5% and +9%), showing, as highlighted by the trade unions, a “rising precariousness”. By counting these job – seekers- of which more than 450,000 are working full time but looking for another job – the number of subscribers amounted to 5.46 million.

Some unions and the opposition accuse in addition to the government from attempting to artificially depress the numbers with the plan to 500,000 further education and training for the unemployed : by entering into training, they go out of categories A, B and C to reach D, which the unemployed in training (324.000), less scrutinized. But it is stable for three months.

Improvement expected for 2017

According to the latest forecasts of the Insee, the improvement will continue, but slightly : the unemployment is expected to fall to 9.6% in metropolitan france (9.9% in France) at the end of 2016, and this recession will continue until mid-2017 to reach 9.5% of the active population in metropolitan france.

This slight improvement would be tied to a continuation of net employment growth until mid-2017, which would be sufficient to absorb the increase of the active population. In the third quarter of 2016, the French economy has created to 51,200 new positions, posting a sixth consecutive quarter of job creation : still never seen since since 2008.

according To these forecasts, the rate of unemployment would not, however, by the end of the quinquennium Holland in may of 2017, to its level of the beginning of the mandate (compared to 9.3% in metropolitan france). Since the beginning of this quinquennium, 556.000 unemployed are added to the ranks of Pole employment.

Mr. B. with AFP


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