Tuesday, December 27, 2016

The decryption eco. The decrease in unemployment, the effect of lower charges – Franceinfo

the president of the Republic, François Hollande, Taverny December 26, 2016.
the president of the Republic, François Hollande, to Taverny December 26, 2016. (LIONEL BONAVENTURE / POOL)

31.800 unemployed less in November compared to October in category A. the number of job seekers has fallen for the third month in a row, a first since the beginning of the crisis in 2008. Why the French economy is again creating jobs ?

in practical terms, from January 2016, 150 000 people have found employment in the merchant sector (private), and this while our economy has known this year a growth limited to 1.2%. That is to say, less than 1.5%, of which it is said that it can really stop the decline in the unemployment rate.

So, despite a growth that is far from being at the top, there was a clear inflection in the unemployment, especially for young people. But if the category A (this includes persons with no work) is declining, unemployment is rising in categories B and C (people who only work a few hours per month) as well as in category D, which includes persons in training. The improvement is thus made at the price of a certain precariousness.

the First concrete effects of the CICE

This decline in the number of job seekers is the result of the first effects of the Tax Credit Competitiveness Employment. Evidence that a lower cost of doing business is effective, even if it is not sufficient.
The YEAR is a decline in expenses overall for 40 billion euros spread over several years. The device was presented as a gift to the companies. In reality, this allowed them to inflate their margins and, therefore, to have a horizon more clear with the first positive effects on employment.

Too late for that François Hollande can enjoy it on the plan policy

This is the paradox of this quinquennium, but also the key of François Hollande, who is always looking for the consensus. On one side, the president of the Republic has listened and understood the business leaders who demanded reductions in expenses, but, on the other hand, the head of State has given a guarantee to its own majority, to the household, laying down conditions for the grant of the SIEC. All this has further complicated the system.

The CICE is a measure of pro-business, but, if we push the reasoning, we can say that this measure was not quite adapted to the economic situation as not quite radical compared to the current context.

The YEAR has been, and remains, for many enterprises, especially SMES, a system very complicated, and that produces its effects only on the length. Lower expenses immediately would have had an impact more outspoken on the creation of jobs and the famous reversal of the unemployment curve, which had wagered François Hollande, would probably have been more sensitive, earlier.

François Hollande has prepared the ground for his successor

beyond the balance sheet, it is now necessary to take into account the perspectives offered to the next president of the Republic to transform the test for the decrease in unemployment.

Some of the measures put in place during this five year period and have allowed an improvement in employment in recent months, will turn off gradually, including supported employment, the many formations that have released some people, statistics, etc., But the movement is well underway. It will therefore have to continue to support this movement, and, most importantly, do not forget another element that weighs all its weight : the social dialogue.

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