Since his nomination paper for the presidential election, Emmanuel Macron has climbed steadily in the polls. According to the most recent of them, the former minister of Economy planerait to 14% of voting intentions, the elbow-to-elbow with Jean-Luc Mélenchon. This seat election, reinforced by the positioning conservative candidate The Republicans François Fillon, suggests that Emmanuel Macron would be able to be the third man in 2017.
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by doing This, it would be a breakthrough similar to that of François Bayrou ten years ago, when the president of the UDF, had recorded a score of 18,57% of the votes in 2007. A boulevard, which, in addition to its virtual nature at this stage, the risk of being bottled by other applications, namely those of François Bayrou, precisely, and Manuel Valls, if it came out the winner of the primary to the left. The three men are, in fact, values close or even identical in certain aspects.
“Only, Macron does not weigh heavy”
For all that, Emmanuel Macron is he condemned to a role of appearing top of the range for the election of 2017? According to the political scientist Laurent Bouvet, the space occupied by the former deputy secretary general of the Elysée is more narrow than it seems. “If we start from the principle that there is a left block that weighs about 40%, then a right and a national Front which weigh 30% each, we can see that Emmanuel Macron, alone, does not weigh heavy,” says the essayist in The Express.
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In this division, Laurent Bouvet apparent the former minister of François Hollande to the left so-called “government”. A the left close to the center, which accommodates largely to the laws of the market and that promotes the emancipation of the individual rather than the assertion of identity. From this point of view, the electorates of Emmanuel Macron, François Bayrou and Manuel Valls are superimposed. It is also necessary that the former Prime minister, so the winner of the primary on the left (which remains to be seen) and the mayor of Pau decides, in the absence of agreement, programmatic with François Fillon, to launch a 4th time in the race élyséenne.
A liberal rather than a centrist
In the entourage of Emmanuel Macron, the serenity remains. First, in the short term, in the case of a possible candidacy of François Bayrou. “We expect to see on the room,” sums up for The Express Arnaud Leroy, member of PS of the French from abroad, and the former support of Arnaud Montebourg. “Francois Bayrou is not the tutelary figure of the centre. This is not Michel Rocard, or Pierre Mendès-France”, he adds, before reducing the ambitions of the mayor of Pau, at the “testimony”.
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The elected socialist recognises, however, that the two men wear similar projects. A message sent by Emmanuel Macron himself in the aftermath of the defeat of Alain Juppé to the primary right. “I called François Bayrou, if he is not comfortable with the program, François Fillon, to join us, because there are a lot of convergences,” he said on November 27, on BFMTV.
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Yann Wehrling, vice-president and spokesperson of the MoDem, is not of this opinion. According to him, the leader of the Running! is a candidate a “liberal” before being a centrist. And the former environmental campaigner, to castigate, to Express, to the report “the world of money” that would sustain Emmanuel Macron. “We carry a strong speech on ethics and morality,” says Yann Wehrling, according to which the former banker would be a symbol of “porous borders between finance and politics.” In contradiction, therefore, with the legacy of the christian democratic claimed by François Bayrou.
Alain Madelin of 2017?
The former minister grappille not least within the moderate right, where some voters -particularly those of Alain Juppé – say, seduced by the discourse of economic and european Emmanuel Macron. Even so, Laurent Bouvet does not see “how people of the centre-right would vote for Macron rather than Fillon”. “Whatever one may say, the people who say they are ‘centrists’ are either catholic, reasonably conservative; liberals, good complexion, in line with the elements of the program of François Fillon. This reduces the scope of what is possible for Emmanuel Macron,” says the political scientist.
all that, as admitted by Arnaud Leroy, if the identity issues “overwrite the debate” in 2017, the route of the former minister will be all the more bumpy. “It is sure that Malek Boutih has not his napkin at us”, says the elected official, in reference to the controversial relationship of the member PS of the Essonne) on jihadism published in 2015. Understand: this is not the niche that the former adviser to François Hollande has put his ball.
“If it is to make 10% in the election and become the new Bayrou, Emmanuel Macron will be condemned to wander,” says Laurent Bouvet, who believes that the adventure In March! is a “rifle-shot”. Yann Wehrling goes even further. For him, Emmanuel Macron could experience the same fate as Alain Madelin in 2002. At the time, the former minister Jacques Chirac had tried the adventure of a liberal for president. He had finally hit the score sinister of 3.91%.