Le Monde | • Updated | By
In the first quarter, the German economy grew by only 0.3%. Announced Wednesday, May 13, this figure is significantly worse than the last quarter of 2014. The gross domestic product had then jumped 0.7%. Experts also banking on growth of 0.5% in the first quarter.
According to preliminary estimates from Destatis, the Federal Statistical Office, it is mainly domestic demand drove growth early this year disappointing. Both households state increased spending. Similarly, Destatis said, without even being able to give accurate, that investment was “significantly higher” as before in construction and capital goods. Overall situation of the institutes continue to be optimistic for 2015. All have in recent weeks raised their initial expectations, bringing them to about 2%. The government traditionally cautious plans for this year a growth of 1.8%.
“Companies are not euphoric”
In March, exports reached 107.5 billion euros, a new record. Although imports totaled € 84.5 billion, the surplus remains impressive: 23 billion euros for a single month. Besides, in the first quarter, the surplus of the trade balance amounted to 58.1 billion euros, 25% higher than the first quarter of the previous year. However, industrial orders are yo-yo. After falling 0.9% in February compared to January, they have rebounded by 0.9% in March, less than expected. Especially industrial production contracted by 0.5% in March, while experts predicted a small rise. Nevertheless, Deutsche Bank still expects growth in industrial production of 1.5% this year.
In a note published on May 8, economists at Deutsche Bank observed that the weakness of the euro and the slight increase in growth in the euro area at the beginning of the year can only be favorable for German industry. “Companies are not euphoric” judge provided the bank. Among the risks still are the crises on the periphery of Europe, both in Ukraine and south of the Mediterranean. And if the oil price decline is obviously a good thing for the economy, it also moderates purchases from the Gulf countries. Similarly, low policy rate charged by the ECB, if it can both boost investment, “provokes skepticism among many entrepreneurs” who are worried about a non-political conventional and continue to wonder about a possible exit of Greece from the euro area.
It is in this context that Wolfgang Schäuble, finance minister, presented Thursday, May 7 its revenue tax. All taxes collected by the state, the United Regions and municipalities between 2015 and 2019 should exceed 38 billion euros initially forecast. Under pressure from the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the minister announced that he would surrender a – small – some households. As in 2014 and 2015, the imposing gates did not take inflation into account, and German taxpayers have seen their taxes increase even when their real incomes remained stable. To compensate for this injustice, 1.5 billion will be distributed to households. According to experts, this represents on average 96 euros per taxpayer.
Strike Activity
In addition, Germany, the country’s social consensus, suffers currently several important strikes. After train drivers who have virtually paralyzed traffic for an entire week – unheard of – it’s now the turn of some postal workers and educators working in nurseries to stop work to demand a revaluation of their salaries . So many signs that employees of public companies and services also want to enjoy the fruits of growth.
Rainer Hoffmann, the moderate president of the DGB, the German trade union confederation, increases of claims wages by 10% to 12% in these industries are not particularly high and are only responding to a need to catch up. If fears of deflation seem to dissipate, inflation is far from a level deemed satisfactory. In April, consumer prices were stable over one month and grew only 0.5% year on year. The price of wholesale them are still 0.9% lower than they were in April 2014
Read also:. French growth rebounded in the first quarter
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