The central bank Japan in Tokyo, February 18, 2015 (AFP / File / Kazuhiro Nogi)
The growth accelerated in the first quarter in Japan, a country recovering from a recession, household consumption remains sluggish, a challenge for the government and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) struggling with a stubborn deflation.
Gross domestic product (GDP) grew between January and March 0, a 6% quarter on quarter, following a 0.3% expansion in the last three months of 2014, the government said Wednesday.
This figure, above expectations of economists, has pleasantly surprised investors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei gained 0.72% in mid-session.
The good surprise came from companies, including non-residential investment in the tilted green (+ 0.4%). They also increased their inventories, contributing positively to GDP. Note also, the good form of the property market.
Exports remained strong in Archipelago that posted in March its first trade surplus in three years, but import volumes amounted to a pace, so that the net foreign trade growth slowed during the period.
– A flash in the pan? –
While some economists have hailed “good GDP numbers,” not all were of that opinion. “The acceleration was mainly due to the surge seen in stocks” has estimated Marcel Thieliant, of Capital Economics, who predicts “a slowdown” in the second quarter and growth “close to zero” on the whole 2015.
Black Point, household consumption, badly shaken by an increase in the Japanese VAT in April 2014, again failed to shine (+ 0.4%) early this year.
Blame remuneration which tend to stagnate in a labor market certainly in near full employment (unemployment rate 3.4%), but where the precariousness progresses.
The spring wage negotiations have resulted in significant increases but it is not sure that this favorable trend extends to SMEs and rural areas, warns Harumi Taguchi economist IHS study.
skepticism shared by Yasutoshi Nagai, chief economist with the brokerage Daiwa Securities, told Bloomberg.
He does not see himself drawing the “virtuous circle” matters as to their wishes Conservative Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. And to evoke “a recovery that is expected to remain fragile,” accompanied by an anemic inflation.
More optimistic, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had raised its mid-April projections and now expects growth 1% in 2015.
In 2014, Japan saw its GDP shrink by 0.1% (according to revised data published negatively Wednesday), a setback for the government, following growth of 1 , 7% in 2012 and 1.6% in 2013
– BoJ. status quo for –
In this difficult context, inflation has stalled. Currently close to zero, it could fall in the coming months, recently warned the BoJ, forced to revise his copy.
Designated there two years by Shinzo Abe to lead the monetary component of its recovery strategy, called the “abenomics” Haruhiko Kuroda originally hoped to achieve its ultimate objective of price increase of 2 % during this spring. But in view of the delay, it is now targeting 2016.
Nevertheless, it remains convinced that the economy is on the right track. He tirelessly cites unpublished profits often brandished by large firms, weaker yen – an asset for exporting firms – and oil prices decline in a very poor country in natural resources
. Also, “monetary easing, together with government measures, has significantly reduced the deflationary mindset of the population,” said the Governor of the BoJ last week by holding a new gesture No ‘was “not necessary at this time.”
The GDP figures have probably in that view. “Today’s statistics repel the probability of a short-easing by the central bank,” confirms Mr. Thieliant, but it will not escape before the end of the year, in the opinion of
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