There was a rumor yesterday at midday, propagated by a Greek official to the extent that optimism blew and made flying markets, including the Paris stock exchange. So should we believe?
It was checked again yesterday, a rumor is not information, especially when it wants to force fate, especially if it is spread on condition of anonymity and has been confirmed by any official of the opposing party, ie Brussels, the European Central Bank or the IMF. Everyone wanted to believe the good news yesterday. But it is clear this morning that the interminable negotiations on the precipice sometimes has more to the political battle, including in its worst aspects – with its share of disinformation – that a rational economic discussion. While it is true that at the same time everyone wants that this episode is over. The pressures are terrible, the nerves of each other are still under stress. Greece is on the brink of financial default, its coffers are empty, now is really a matter of days. .? The countdown began
But at least we know what still blocks
On paper, the deal seems simple: three large creditors Greece, which are the European Union, the Central Bank and the IMF are ready to unlock a new tranche of more than 7 billion euros, but they do not want to put that money without guarantees and without a well background. Both the others have already put a lot of money, to the point that no country in the world has been helped as much as Greece. In exchange therefore, creditors demand a clear plan for reform and want guarantees on their implementation on the part of a State whose administration is structurally weak: there is on the table a VAT increase, a postponement to 67 years of retirement age instead of 62, or a liberation of markets for goods and services specifically claimed by the IMF to boost growth.
And the answer Greek negotiators?
The Greek leaders make us think the formula of Woody Allen: “I hate the reality, but it’s the only place to find a good steak,” although in the circumstances, the reality, ie, is the only place where the Greeks can find new money.
So they want nothing which could resemble the terrible austerity it is true that had been imposed on them without much success in recent years. They want no cuts in wages and pensions, want to rehire staff, ensure social benefits including health and minimize the privatization. Especially the government of Alexis Tsipras, wants a political victory and a “long-term solution to the debt,” according to the official formula, ie a debt restructuring that creditors have so far always refused. All subjects that show that if an agreement was finally torn in the coming days, it would be only temporary and partial and precede further negotiations. The truth is that Europe will have none finished with the Greek problem for several years.