about THE SCAN, ECO – According to a note by the research centre of Sciences Po, published this week, the evolution of voting intentions has more to the right parliamentarian, at the Front national.
Despite the drastic measures announced by François Fillon (elimination of 500,000 government jobs, transition to 39 hours without any increase, alignment of retirement plans on employees in the private sector), the rightward shift of the electorate officer continues and is registered in time, reveals a note of the Cevipof, centre de recherches de Sciences Po, in wave 9 of the survey of election to 2017, released this week. This rightward shift has more to the right in parliament and the centre than on the national Front although the latter deceives in public services.
“This development comes in view of a general request for authority but also of the social crisis that is shaking the public service the more modest,” Luc Rouban, author of the study.
In may 2016, the wave 4 Survey French presidential election we learned that 41% of employees in the public (votes) would vote for a candidate of the left in the first round of the presidential election of 2017. In December 2016, these figures are seriously reduced as they would be more than 29% to 39.5% depending of the offer of nomination.
The PS suffered a collapse in electoral considerable, “which translates into potential results for Manuel Valls lower than those that could be obtained, François Hollande, in may 2016,” and that “there has been an increase in the strength of the potential election of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, but that is far from being able to offset the attractiveness of the candidate carriers of the values of the conservative right”, the study said.
This new political orientation of civil servants, which does not spare the teachers, however, should not hide the strong distortions between the different categories, between executives and the employees in particular. “In this respect, the national Front seems to be permanently inscribed in the political universe of the category C even if François Fillon is now playing a significant role”, one can read.
In this survey, carried out between 2 and 8 December, Luc Rouban has focused on the nomination of Manuel Valls – reported since the December 5 – for the left with or without François Bayrou.
“” If François Bayrou is the candidate
• This is Marine Le Pen, who appeals to the more the civil servants, even if it recedes to the benefit of François Fillon
First observation: it is Marine Le Pen who would get the best scores in the three public functions: HPF (21,5%), FPE (18,5%), FPT (19.4 per cent), as well as in public enterprises (25,4%). All of these civil servants, including those of the FPH, choose then French prime minister François Fillon (21.3 per cent) in the second round to face her and, despite its reforms very criticized by the sphere of politico-media on the social Security. He would get then 18% of the votes in the FPE and FPT and 19.5% in public enterprises.
“The results of Marine Le Pen were higher in may 2016, as it was getting 22.5% of the votes in the FPE, 23% in the FPT, 25.6% in the FPH and 29.4% in the public enterprises. It seems, therefore, that the nomination of François Fillon has exerted a certain attraction on his electorate,” notes the study.
• The teachers choose Manuel Valls and the police and military, Marine Le Pen
A 46.3 per cent of the police and military would vote Marine Le Pen in 2017, a high percentage but a decrease of 5 points compared to may 2016. In the second position, they would turn to French prime minister François Fillon for 27,5% of them. As for the teachers, they would vote first for Manuel Valls (21%), and then for Jean-Luc Mélenchon to 19% (an increase compared to may 2016 where it did not obtain that 17% of the vote) and François Fillon (17.6 per cent). The candidates of the left (off Emmanuel Macron) does not obtain, therefore, that 48% of the votes of the teachers, compared to 56% in may 2016 with a simulation of the candidacy of Alain Juppe.
• categories A prefer to Manuel Valls and the B and C elect Marine Le Pen and François Fillon
As to the categories, they would prefer Manuel Valls (19%) and then François Fillon (18.2 per cent). But out of the teachers, it is François Fillon who would get the best score (20.8 per cent). The class Has abandoned the left with only 41.6 percent of the vote. Luc Rouban also notes “the sharp rightward shift of the executives of the public service, outside teaching, where the whole right-wing candidates and the FN get a total of 48.5% without Emmanuel Macron, but 66% if one includes it in the group.”
categories B and C would Marine Le Pen (21.3% and 26.4 per cent) and then French prime minister François Fillon (of 19.2% and 18.6%).
“” If François Bayrou is not a candidate
This is the hypothesis “the more vraissembable” according to the author of the study.
• François Fillon approximates or even exceeds, Marine Le Pen in the various public functions
In this case, François Fillon closer to Marine Le Pen in the f / p / t (18.5 per cent compared to 20.8%) and even exceeding in the FPE (at 19.6% versus 19.5%) or caught up in the FPH (22% for both).
“You will observe that the absence of François Bayrou benefits mechanically to Emmanuel Macron, but also Manuel Valls as French prime minister François Fillon, and even Jean-Luc Mélenchon, these transfers of votes to be explained by the composite nature of the electorate of François Bayrou, whose part is rather to the right, the other one rather to the left, and a third motivated by professional considerations, which is the case of teachers who have always much appreciated,” the study says.
• The teachers choose a Valls and Mélenchon, while the military and police prefer The Pen and Fillon
Without François Bayrou, the distribution of the votes of the teachers would be turned upside down. They entered on Manuel Valls (22,2%) and Jean-Luc Mélenchon (21.6 per cent). French prime minister François Fillon came in third place (19.6 percent). But the one who benefit the most would be Emmanuel Macron with 17.5% of the vote, compared with 13.4 per cent, with François Bayrou.
The electoral competition between François Fillon and Marine Le Pen seems to be stable among police officers and the military, while Manuel Valls, criticized the left for its policy of regal, would be able to get so far no success in this sector. “One may note that the only police officers prefer Marine Le Pen to the tune of 52% against 27.6% for François Fillon, then, that the figures balance each other out more in the military and the gendarmes with intentions to vote to 44% for the candidate of the FN and 30.3% for the candidate of LR”, one can read in the study.
• Without Bayrou, the class turns to Valls, the B and the C to The Pen
Without François Bayrou, the vote in the A category would especially Emmanuel Macron in the category (+ 4 percentage points). It “obtains its best results at the executive level, in particular in category A of the FPE and FPT with respectively 19.2% and 20.2% of voting intentions. Its lowest results are obtained for employees, especially in the category C of the FPE and FPT with in both cases, 13.7 per cent of intentions to vote,” the study says. As for Manuel Valls, it would be better that Emmanuel Macron, achieving 22% of the votes in the class A of the FPE. Its result the more modest to draw in the category C of the FPH with 10%.
Marine Le Pen would be at its highest level in category C of the FPE and of the FPH with respectively 30.4% and 29% of voting intentions. Its low the lowest is reached in category A of the FPE with 9.5 per cent of voting intentions.