The government forecast an increase of 1.4% of GDP over the whole of the year. In 2015, the growth was determined to be 1.2 %.
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Until the end, the headwinds of the economy have stifled the quinquennium of Francois Hollande. While the president was walled up in a silence derived from his renunciation to run for a second term, and that presidential candidates are trying to impose in contrast to its balance-sheet, the latest growth figures tricolor paint a picture dull of our economy.
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In 2016, the gross domestic product of France (GDP) grew only 1.1 %, announced by the Insee, Tuesday, January 31. Less than the 1.2 per cent that the institute was still waiting in October last year. And away from the forecast of 1.4 % which clung to the government, which will be to the end wanted to believe in an acceleration compared to + 1.2% in 2015.
of Course, it is only a first estimate : ” The final accounts will not be known until the end of three years, when we will have the whole set of data to business tax “, stresses Vladimir Passeron, head of the department of economic Insee. The offset reached while commonly 0.2 to 0.3 percentage point of GDP. It does not prevent. the ” It is a disappointment : the growth does not ultimately proven to be higher in 2016 than in 2015 “ grants Mr. Passeron.
foreign trade, the main cause of this braking
” The acceleration does not occur in 2016, which raises the question about the capacity of the French economy to rebound after the crisis “, abounds Mathieu Plane, economist at the French economic Observatory (OFCE).
The main reason of this brake is the foreign trade : it weighed at height of 0.9 percentage points on the growth. The fault, on the one hand, the sharp slowdown of world trade, in the emerging countries – led by China – and by extension in the advanced economies : the growth of trade has been divided by two in the last year. But the disappointment French was also related to difficulties encountered by several of our major export sectors : aeronautics, where Airbus suffered severe delays in delivery by its suppliers, and agriculture, whose production has even more sharply than expected due to bad weather conditions. What affect annual performance, even if the growth of GDP in the last quarter (+ 0,4 %) was in line with forecasts.
drop in household consumption in December
These elements have not been able to be offset by the good performance of the other engines of French growth. They are, however, significant. The consumption of households has restarted in the last quarter after a hole of air in the middle of the year. It proved to be more dynamic in 2015, despite a decline of 0.8% in December 2016.
The household investment in housing seems to finally undo the years of crisis : it is rising for the first time since 2008. As to business investment, which had registered several hits due to the uncertainty surrounding the extension of the government of suramortissement tax, it has finally experienced a strong rebound last year (+ 4.3 per cent). Result : without the under-performance of exports, the growth hex would have amounted to nearly 2 % in 2016 !
In this landscape for less contrast, than to wait for 2017 ? the ” The difficulties of the aviation sector may be followed by a catch-up effect in the beginning of the year “, said Mr. Passeron. the ” It is a phenomenon in part of the economic cycle. But given the evolution of the economy habs in the last fifteen to twenty years, it only served to confirm the structural weaknesses of the French trade “, says Olivier Chemla, chief economic of the French Association of private enterprises. With regard to agricultural crops, simply a return to normal weather conditions would bring back 0.2 of a percentage point of additional growth. Insee forecasts that growth continues on its current course, with a GDP growth of respectively 0.3 and 0.4 % in the first and second quarter 2017.
The business climate is at the highest since the summer of 2011
But the” acquired growth ” – that is to say, the performance that would expect the French economy in 2017 from the level only reached by the end of 2016 – is reduced like skin of sorrow : it is not more than 0.4 %, as against 1 per cent estimated there are still three months. Be as much as there are twelve months.
” We do not share with more momentum than last year, while the increase in oil prices will have an upward impact on inflation, and that interest rates are expected to continue to tighten “, emphasizes Axelle Lacan, economist at Coe-Rexecode. In January, inflation reached 1.4% on a year, a clear acceleration compared to December (+ 0,6 %).
However, several positive indicators have marked the beginning of the year : the business climate, a reflection of the morale of business leaders, is at the highest since the summer of 2011 in the industry for the month of January, while that of households has recovered to its level of 2007, before the financial crisis. the ” But all we did was catch up the lost ground “, pointe Hélène Baudchon, economist at BNP Paribas.
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Bercy, we prefer to retain the glass half full. the ” For the second consecutive year, economic activity has been dynamic, to finally reduce unemployment while continuing to reduce its public deficit. Since the summer of 2015, the situation has led to a resumption of job creation in the private sector (240 000 jobs created in a year and a half) as well as by a decrease in the number of people registered at Pole emploi in 2016 “, welcomed the minister of economy, Michel Sapin. Defend its balance sheet, costs…
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