it’s All happening. Despite a false note in December, 2016, will be remembered as ” the year of the quinquennium Holland in terms of unemployment. On the last month of the past year, the number of job seekers registered with Pôle emploi in category A (those who have not worked) increased 26.100, compared to November, to settle at 3,473 million in metropolitan France. This increase, due primarily to the purposes of CDD, a shadow to the right number of November (-31.800), but does not question the trend.
three-month rolling period, the number of people registered at Pole emploi without activity has declined of 17,400. Better, year-on-year, the decline has reached 107.400, after eight years of increases in a row, did not fail to emphasize Myriam El Khomri, minister of Labour. In other words, not only 2016 will be the year of inversion, but, in addition, it is necessary to go back to 2007, the year before the subprime crisis, to find an annual fall in unemployment in France, even if it had been much more pronounced at the time (nearly 250,000 job seekers under the age).
Despite a situation that remains difficult (see below), less than 25 years are the main beneficiaries, according to the executive. They were 46.100 less without activity by the end of 2016, a decrease of 8.8 % year on year, ” more than twice “ to that of 2015. And a return to the level of mid-2011. For the long-term unemployed, the decline in spring to 2.4 %, 58.300.
Continuation of the recession ?
in order To explain these good results, the executive met again in before the various arrangements put in place to reduce the cost of doing business (CICE, covenant, liability, premium, SME’s…) and the increase in job creation that has resulted, as has just mentioned the Acoss, the body that collects social security contributions (” Les Echos ” from January 23). In fact, the statistics showing the inputs and outputs of the categories A, B (registered with the employment who worked less than 78 hours), or C (more than 78 hours), confirm the improvement on a year : a significant drop in entries for end of temporary work contracts of one side, a sharp recession also for recovery of employment declared to be of the other. The whole question is whether the year 2017 will be the same barrel as the previous one. From a macroeconomic point of view, the economists expect growth of 1.2 % ” only “, like last year. It is sufficient to reduce the number of job seekers, but probably in smaller proportions because of the previously mentioned devices will run out of steam.
self-Confident, the government is betting on a continuation of the trend, at least on the first half, especially as the first results, even very partial, of the plan, “500.000 further education and training” of the unemployed would be satisfactory in terms of return to employment. In his latest note de conjoncture, Insee table on a fall of 20,000 in the number of unemployed only, but counting according to the standard of the BIT.
in addition, if the unemployment curve is reversed as had been promised by François Hollande since his election, the number of students enrolled in class A has increased to 550.000.
Alain Ruello, Les Echos
Leila de Comarmond, Les Echos