there is a paradox Valls. Favorite surveys -a survey Harris Interactive for France Télévisions gives him 43% of voting intentions in the first round of the primary to the left – the former Prime minister, struggling to convince in the beginning of the year. While Benoît Hamon has placed his project for the creation of a universal income at the heart of the debate, Manuel Valls is facing a delicate equation: assume the balance sheet of the quinquennium with a project for the future. Reinvent itself after five years at the heart of power.
Guest Thursday of Issue political, the former mayor of Evry not convinced that 29% of French and 45% of supporters of the left. A score lower than that of Arnaud Montebourg and Benoît Hamon, the guests before him. How do you explain this air hole of the ex-head of government? The Express train made the point about the difficulties of the candidate Valls.
The difficult passage of Prime minister candidate
Manuel Valls drags a ball and chain. The candidate has been at the heart of the quinquennium, as minister of the Interior and later as head of government. It must now successfully pass the status of Prime minister to a candidate without the slightest transition. The task has historically been difficult. Placed in this situation in 1988 and 1995, Jacques Chirac and Edouard Balladur have both failed to win the Elysée.
The case of Manuel Valls is even more delicate. The candidate is carrying a five-year term massively maligned by the French, and is under the obligation to claim the balance sheet under penalty of losing all credibility. “But if this balance is so good, why François Hollande doesn’t it?” quips from The Express to the socialist deputy Christian Paul, co-ordinator of the campaign, Arnaud Montebourg.
Aware of this pitfall, the interested party claimed responsibility Tuesday for a “right to invention”, on the occasion of the presentation of his program. Difficult, as the candidate is permanently reduced to its action at the head of the executive.
changes in series
This is the reverse of the medal. Manuel Valls has erected the transgression by political strategy. Attack against the 35 hours, willingness to change their fields of activities in the PS… The man is built by attacking the dogmas of the socialist. A posture is not foreign to his meteoric rise, but helped to split up the majority during the quinquennium. Manuel Valls, used the strokes of the chin, must now expand its political base and unite the left. The exercise is delicate and leads the candidate to spectacular turnarounds.
Symbol in the most brilliant: his proposal to delete article 49.3 of the Constitution, in which he used six times to adopt the law Macron and the reform of the labour Code. “I imposed the 49-3″, a-t-he assured on Thursday on France 2, aimed directly at the slingers.
The old contempteur of the 35 hours is not proposing now to delete the ISF, advocates for a decent income of 800 euros and assumes “the level of public expenditure, which the French have need of.” “I haven’t changed my conviction, but I’ve changed, I’ve matured”, has justified the former tenant of Matignon Thursday on France 2.
These changes question and throw the disorder on the political identity of Manuel Valls. “There is a speech for the application, and a practice for the government, it is the problem of Manuel Valls”, launched this Friday, Arnaud Montebourg.
These shifts have also a perverse effect. They take off to Manuel Valls, his singularity, the instrument of his political ascension. Do not move, it is alienating part of the electorate of the left. To evolve, it is taking the risk of being accused of opportunism: Manuel Valls will have to demonstrate agility to get out of this rut.
A primary focus on the economy
The economy is not really the strong point of Manuel Valls. It is his blind spot. The former tenant of Beauvau is of benefit identified on security issues and identity on the fight against unemployment. Problem: the primary on the left revolves around economic and social issues. Arnaud Montebourg poses as the apostle of the “Made in France” and of the fiscal stimulus, while Benoit Hamon denounces the “worship” growth” and proposed a universal income.
Manuel Valls is less audible: decent Income, increase of small pensions, the minimum wage in europe… The candidate has posted on Tuesday a program resolutely of the left, but does not avoid the trial in opportunism instructed by its competitors. Manuel Valls embodies in effect within the PS line social-liberal very assertive. “It is by acts that we judge a man of the State,” said Tuesday former Prime minister, lashing out at those who have “turned to look at the rear view mirror”.
The rallies that are slow
The nomination of Manuel Valls has not triggered a tsunami rallies. Of course, the former Prime minister can count on the support of several members of the government. Najat Vallaud-Belkacem, Michel Sapin and Jean-Yves Le Drian have lent their support to the candidate. But the couple executive remains silent. François Hollande should not express a preference during the primary. “Valls has the advantage of experience, but none of the candidates in the primary is not really ready on the plane of ideas”, would be released in private by the president of the Republic, according to Le Canard Enchaîné.
For its part, the current head of the government wished to keep “a certain reserve” in the poll. According to The Point, Bernard Cazeneuve, but should view with Manuel Valls, Monday, at the occasion of a visit of the centre Arianespace of Evry-Courcouronnes. The opportunity to demonstrate the proximity between two men who appreciate and have closely collaborated during the wave of attacks in 2015 and 2016.
Macron, a pebble in his shoe
for a Long time, Manuel Valls has embodied the reform and modernity. Its niche policy, a mixture of economic liberalism and firmness on the issues of security, assured him a unique place on the political chessboard. But the outbreak of the former minister of the Economy has been drummed into the cards. Manuel Valls has lost the monopoly of modernity that competes seriously with Emmanuel Macron. What is the incidence for the primary? For the former Prime minister, there is a risk that voters of the center-left, eager to vote Macron in 2017, do not move to vote on the 22 and 29 January.