The trade deficit of France is reduced but remains a concern – Les Echos

The shock against oil is a boon for France. The collapse in the price of black gold – divided by three since mid-2014 – greatly improving external accounts to France. The trade deficit stood at 45.7 billion euros in 2015, down 22% due to a reduction in energy costs of 14.6 billion, Customs said Friday. But the oil price fall has not only benefited France. Trading partners of the Hexagon have also benefited. Accordingly, “French exports show a renewed dynamism”, says Matthias Fekl, the Secretary of State for Foreign Trade. They were up 4.3% last year.

Sectors such as automotive, luxury or cosmetics have benefited from rising purchasing power in developed economies, which increase is explained by lower again the price of oil. Thus, French exports of goods to the countries of the euro zone rose more than 2% and those to the United States surged by almost 20% in 2015. The depreciation of the euro against the dollar throughout last year there is obviously no stranger.

For economists Xerfi, “French exporters have equal games with their main competitors and do not be ashamed of their performance. Only the Germans did better last year with exports up 5.7%, Italians (3.3%), Spain (+ 3%) are considerably worse. ” The market share of French exports in the world have thus stabilized. And at the same time, the number of exporting firms in France, one of the Achilles heels of the productive fabric of the country, climbed. Approximately 125,000 companies exported goods last year, 4,000 more than in 2014.

This improving trend of the French trade balance is expected to continue in 2016. The ‘credit insurer Euler Hermes estimates that 21.2 billion euros of potential additional exports from France this year. “The decline of the euro and stabilized anchor around 1.05 to 1.1 dollar since March creates an important competitive advantage, supported by a renewed dynamism in major trading partners of the euro area in France,” says Ludovic Subran, chief economist at Euler Hermes.

Bercy and expects a trade deficit although the order of 40 billion euros, but this estimate date of October. It is therefore based on an average price per barrel of oil at 55 dollars over the year as it hovers around 30 dollars in recent days. But fears of a slowing economy in China and the US were both weaker in fall 2015 than now. That said, the concentration of French exports to Europe – the old continent accounts for almost 55% of foreign sales – now seems to protect French industry rollover emerging markets.

Large black spots remain. First, the trade deficit excluding energy and military equipment widened to 23 billion euros. Then, if France is the fourth country in the world exporter of services, the surplus in this area fell to 4.3 billion euros to 13.5 billion in 2015.