Friday, February 26, 2016

Upward revision to growth in the fourth quarter – Les Echos

Here is some news that will undoubtedly contribute to bring smiles to the government. INSEE has indeed revise upward its first growth estimate for the fourth quarter of 2015. Now, according to official statisticians, GDP grew 0.3% in the last three months of the year, and not 0.2% as estimated at the end of January.

However, despite this revision, the overall diagnosis is unchanged: average over the year growth was unchanged at 1.1% after 0.2% in 2014.

According to INSEE, several factors explain this revision, including “integration of unavailable indicators in the first estimate, mainly on investment of households in new housing, energy consumption and foreign trade. ” It also add “already available indicators revisions”

Households. More consumption but less investment

In detail, INSEE also revised its estimate of household consumption. Initially announced down 0.4%, it would eventually dropped only 0.2%, despite the still strong impact of the attacks of Paris and particularly mild temperatures. Again, throughout 2015, the estimate of household consumption remains unchanged with an increase of 1.4%, is “the largest increase since 2010.”

on the investment side, their increase is unchanged at 0.7% in the quarter despite a downward revision of those households (-1% against 0.1% reported). Business investment rose 1.3% in the same time. Over the full year, the total investment is still in the red but lower than in 2014: -0.2% against -1.2% in 2014

. on the side of foreign trade, the sole again weighed on GDP growth (-0.5 point in the fourth quarter of 2015, after -0.7 point), “says INSEE” for the full year 2015, the contribution of net exports to growth remained negative (-0.3 point), but less than in 2014 (-0.5 point), “added the official statisticians



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