The results of the latest study by Century 21, published Friday, February 19, are clear: the prices on the private rental market declined in 2015. Over the whole of France, rents network studios in 1.2% decline, those of 2 parts 0.7%, those of 3 parts of 0.3% and 4 pieces of 1.5% year on year. Only 5 rooms and more or houses, which weigh less than 10% of the rental market, with rents stand up. The figures are derived from data from the Century 21 network, with over 800 branches. Although they are less precise than those of Clamor, expected in early March, which are based on data from almost all stakeholders. Century 21 indicators are not provided relatively less reliable.
actual rents down in 10 years
This trend of moderation rents is nothing new. Over 10 years, the index market rents Clamor increased 10%, against an accumulated inflation of about 12% over the period, if one relies on the consumer price index. In other words, if we take into account inflation since 2006, actual rents are now lower than those before the subprime crisis. “It is essential to get out of the Parisian prism to measure the wisdom shown by the rental market in setting its prices. No supervision is required”, asserts and Century 21.
“Rents tends to fall because there are more and more supply. in medium-sized cities such as Dijon, Grenoble, Orleans and Tours, rents for relocation may show declines of 5%, “says Jean-François Buet, President Fnaim. For the owner of the National Federation of real estate, this decline in rents is also linked to “an overall impoverishment of rental customers.” When property prices to purchase can blaze through debt, those rents are mechanically constrained by wage developments. Mass unemployment and the sluggish economy for years prevented the owners to be too greedy. In 2015, revenues from incoming tenants and stand down at Century 21: -2.7% for tenants of studios and -16.2% for tenants of 2 rooms for example. Century 21 notes, however, that this is a return to normal, while the owners, concerned about the idea of the implementation of the Alur Act, had been particularly demanding on records in 2014 .
It is also Interestingly, the changing profile tenants. 30-40 years are fewer and fewer (-6.6% yoy), while the proportion of 50 and over is growing rapidly: + 7.7% year on year for 50-60 years + 16.9% for over 60 years. A real groundswell for several years for the latter, which now account for almost one in ten tenant.
An Airbnb effect?
in Paris, rents increased for studios, 3 parts and 4 parts but fell for the 2 rooms. How to explain it? Already, rent control applies only to the time of renewal of the lease (and not her tacit agreement) or the entrance of a new tenant. All rents are not yet affected by the measure, far from it. Then, Century 21 found that homeowners were below market prices have tended to apply the maximum allowed by law. This “catch up” and partly offsets the decline imposed elsewhere.
Finally, the real network notes that part of the increase is explained by the average space rented a little higher than in 2014. on the Paris market, where new housing construction is anecdotally, this means that part of the offer very small areas is less available than before. Century 21 advance a hypothesis: some goods are removed from the market to be sold or exploited in tourist rental Airbnb type. Moreover, the branch network has been a decline in investment in the rental of 4.8% year on year in the capital, while many buyers are shifting to the inner suburbs or in other major cities France.
“in central Paris, investors have disappeared. agencies that were up to 25% of their business with investors had to find a substitute for this clientele who fled,” confirms Pascal Boulenger, cofounder of MeilleursAgents.com. “This is especially true for buyers of room service, which rented for € 40-45 / m² / month and had to drop to 30 euros, which brought the net yield to 2 / 2.5%. it’s too low given the tenant risk, “he explains.
too low profitability
” the profitability of an apartment is on average 2% after tax . It’s little, “also insists Jean-François Buet. “Yet we have a rental market that presents risks, which may be underestimated, and costs soar (energy, taxes, …),” he says. The rent control would it ultimately an incentive to rent his property on Airbnb, where prices are free and yet few controls?
Nothing is anyway to reassure the small owner who rents his apartment. For scarcely inducted Minister of Housing, Emmanuelle Cosse held last week to greet on France Inter “great Alur law” of his fellow party Cécile Duflot, Housing Minister between May 2012 and March 2014. The one that has just abandoned his post as general secretary of Europe Ecology – the Greens stressed in particular that the law was “extremely important” as’ rent controls it relates Paris for now, many cities are now. “” implement and it will come out in a few months “, she had also assured. the commitment of the Greens to the measure, criticized by all industry professionals, has enough to leave circumspect investors.
(With Eric Tréguier)
& gt; & gt; See below the full study of Century 21, with changes in rents in every major city: