Le Monde | • Updated | By
This is good news for France. In 2015, the French trade deficit narrowed for the fourth consecutive year. It stood at 45.7 billion euros, an improvement of 21.6% from 2014, according to figures released Friday, February 5 by Customs.
“Our exports increased faster than world trade (+ 4.3% against + 2.6%). For the first time in a decade, the number of exporting French companies increased from 121 000 to 125 000, which is very good news. However, with a deficit of over 45 billion euros, France did nothing to brag, “ told the World Matthias Fekl, trade secretary at the State outside.
in detail, exports were supported by aviation deliveries and the recovery of the automotive market, particularly in the countries of southern Europe. Imports, which increased “moderately” under the Customs (+ 1.2%) were “pulled down by falling energy supplies due to reflux of oil prices” . Their rise, whereas they had declined 0.6% in 2014, however, reflect the renewed dynamism of French growth (+ 1.1%), driven by consumption.
“Never, in previous years, we had observed such improvement [trade balance] ” is delighted Helen Baudchon, France economist at BNP Paribas.
external Factors
It is that France comeback. After continued deterioration between 2002 and 2011, when it reached a low of – 74.5 billion euros, the tricolor trade balance is picking up for four years. But good score is largely due to external factors, and the first oil drop. Halved in 2015, the price per barrel has allowed a reduction of 14.6 billion euros in the energy bill
Read also:. Why oil reached its level lowest since 2004
the depreciation of the euro against the dollar, making European products cheaper, has also favored French exporters. “But this has mainly played on markets in dollar, as many other currencies [Asian, South American] is depreciated faster than the euro,” says Ludovic Subran, chief economist at Euler Hermes.
Last external factor, the strength of the European recovery. “We regularly opposes France to its neighbors in terms of competitiveness, but if we go better is because Germany, Spain, Italy will better! Europe is a real safety net, especially against emerging market turmoil, “ summarizes Mr. Subran.
The internal forces of France, especially in terms of labor costs, also seem to start paying. The implementation of the liability and the competitiveness pact employment tax credit (CICE) produced their first effects in 2015 on wage costs and margins. In industry, the increase in wage costs tricolor has become less important in Germany
Read also:. CICE: Bercy contributed € 18.6 billion to companies
“in total, the hourly cost of labor in French manufacturing is below the German level (37.3 euros 39.1 euros in France against Germany ), while the levels were comparable in 2012. all in all market sectors, however France retained a significantly higher hourly cost of work (6%) in Germany, “ describes the institute Coe-Rexecode situation in its report on French competitiveness, published Thursday, February 4.
Still, the CICE is regularly accused of missing its target. It covers salaries up to 2.5 times the minimum wage, while wages in the industrial sectors, leading exporters, are often located above. “In chemistry, refining and pharmaceuticals, less than 40% of payroll is eligible CICE” says Paul Chollet, in charge of France at Coface.
structural Weaknesses
in addition to strict cost issue, the challenge for France is to improve in terms of quality, innovation and upmarket -. what economists call, in their jargon, “non-cost competitiveness”
“the weaknesses of french foreign trade are as much on the export side (to be developed) and imports ( to moderate). To increase exports, we must learn to stand out more by quality, efficient after-sales service, brand (as in luxury), a highly technical (aviation). But also expand the size of companies and better support for export, “ explains M me Baudchon.
In fact, the market shares of France export, increased from nearly 5.7% in late 1992 to 3.3% in late 2011, have beautiful stay above 3% since 2012, they do not progress. Above all, despite a trade deficit that resolves, “the balance of industrial trade continued its steady degradation (- € 31 billion in 2015 [estimate] against – 6.7 billion in 2005), “ highlights Coe-Rexecode.
Aware of the problem, Mr. Fekl had submitted in December 2015 before MPs Quai d’Orsay a report pointing weaknesses structural tricolor trade, and its excessive dependence on the reduction of the energy bill. Among the projects undertaken by Mr. Fekl, better support for SMEs and ETI export, efforts to involve SMEs and large groups internationally and creating a one-stop shop bringing together Business France, Coface and Bpifrance. With the idea, shared by all observers, that beyond the tariff and regulatory barriers, export is a culture instill the traffic business. France currently has half as many exporters as Italy, and three times less than Germany.
Optimism for 2016
“Today 1% of French companies concentrate 97% of exports. And ten companies entering international, only three will resume in 2017, “ says Subran. He emphasizes that beyond the regulatory fears and organizational difficulties, companies insist on ignorance of tools at their disposal to make the leap to export.
In 2016, the experts however want rather optimistic. “The oil effect should last” says Xavier Timbeau, director of the French Observatory of Economic Conditions. In addition, “the slowdown of foreign trade, which will focus in Asian countries, should have little effect on the demand addressed to France, on the contrary supported by the acceleration of trade at European level” he believes. Only downside: “the issue of tourism, with the consequences of attacks that could last over time” warns Mr. Timbeau. Less open, France is more protected in case of global turmoil: exports account for 30% of gross domestic product (GDP) in France against 45% in Germany
Read also.: “Germany remains the locomotive of European exports”
“in 2016, the demand addressed to France should allow additional exports of 21 billion euros, roughly the equivalent of 2015 “ calculates Mr. Subran. According to him, “2016 should be the year of the investment more than exports: the companies have interest to take advantage of the devaluation of many currencies against the dollar for acquisitions in the country become more competitive like Brazil. “
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