Wednesday, January 11, 2017

Why Airbus will regain the world number one –

A Boeing champion of the deliveries in the face of an Airbus leader commands: the year 2016 of the two aircraft confirmed the power-sharing observed in recent years between the global giants of aviation. On one side, the american company, with 748 deliveries against 688 of Airbus, remains the undisputed world leader in aviation, as recovered in 2012. On the other, the sales momentum is clearly in favour of Airbus. The european group announced on Wednesday 11 January, during the presentation of its business results 2016, having obtained 731 net orders (set-off against cancellations), compared to 668 to its competitor. The result: the gap between the order books of the two groups has increased. Airbus should deliver 6.874 aircraft, against 5.715 to Boeing . Sooner or later, this difference of nearly 1,200 aircraft, to be almost two years of production, is found in the numbers of deliveries, enabling Airbus to recover the leadership in the world.

the Crossing of the curves in 2019?

When this toggle is she going to do? Fabrice Brégier, president of the commercial division of Airbus, has maintained its forecast of a crossing of the curves in 2019. “Our backlog is more important should be reflected in deliveries,” says the boss of Airbus. The passage of the A320 family at a rate of 60 aircraft produced per month, expected by mid – 2019, should help to achieve this goal, Boeing does not provide for this maturity, “that” 57 737 aircraft per month. Ditto for the increase in the production of the A350, which are expected to reach 10 aircraft per month at the end of 2018 and, according to the information of Challenges, at 13 per month from October 2019.

The scenario of a recovery of power by Airbus, is also supported by the fact that Boeing seems to have difficulties to maintain its pace of deliveries. The Chicago band has delivered fewer planes in 2016 than in 2015 (748 against 762), the fact of a more difficult transition than expected between its planes the 737 and 777 current and future 737 MAX and 777X. Conversely, Airbus shows up to 14 years of uninterrupted growth of its production, and is expected to continue on this path in 2017, with more than 700 deliveries.

58.4% of the market for the A320neo

At Airbus, it puts into perspective the scope of a possible crossing of the curves. “Is this so important? Not that much, writes Fabrice Brégier. The key is to continue the growth of our production.” But the difference in dynamic commercial when even what to challenge. Boeing, for the first time since the financial crisis, has posted fewer orders than deliveries in 2016. Conversely, Airbus continues to display a ratio of orders relative to shipments, the “book to bill” in pidgin aerospace, greater than 1. Of course, 2016 is expected to be the last year of this type, the admission even of the commercial director John Leahy, but the dynamic is there.

John Leahy is not private to unbuckle his usual flood of figures in support of this thesis. The family of single-aisle A320? It shows up 58.4% of the market share, calculates the supervendeur Airbus. “And even if our friends in Seattle evoke a balance of 50-50-term, this should remain like this”, stated Leahy. The long-haul? Contrary to analysts who evoke a domination of Boeing, the commercial director of Airbus stresses that the european airplane manufacturer, is a leader in the niche, with 124 commands in 2016 against 101 to Boeing. And the A330 shows 51% of market share since the launch of the 787, yet much more recent.

stun gun at Boeing

Airbus would nevertheless be wrong to bury his rival. Boeing remains a quite impressive machine, capable of assembling 12 long-haul boeing 787 aircraft per month, a record in the industry. If the 737 MAX is suffering in the face of the A320NEO, the future twin-engine aircraft 777X, in the segment of long-haul high-capacity, experienced a start-up commercial thunderous, with 306 firm orders from the best companies in the world (Emirates, Cathay Pacific, ANA, Lufthansa, Etihad, Qatar Airways). Airbus is also in the process of studying how to react to this success, with a possible A350 of more than 400 seats, called the A350-2000, which would add to the versions 900 (325 seats) and 1000 (366 seats).

The new boss of Boeing, Dennis Muilenburg, is especially in the process of administering a shock, a giant of Chicago. It has reduced the size of the commercial branch of 6.115 posts on the first 11 months of 2016, and is considering measures of competitiveness further to 2017. The new boss has also renewed a good part of its executive committee in recent months. The ex-GE Kevin McAllister has been named patron of the commercial branch, and the quadra Ihssane Mounir has been bombed, the commercial director of the branch.


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