After the retreat very calculated Ford, last week, Fiat-Chrysler and Volkswagen are taking advantage of the opening of the Detroit motor show, which takes place from 9 to 22 January, to put himself in unison with the economic patriotism of the new president. The group is Italian-american has announced that it will invest $ 1 billion by 2020 in two of its plants in Michigan and Ohio. It will create 2000 jobs on american soil to build a new Jeep luxurious Wagoneer and a pick-up. The German manufacturer has, meanwhile, promised to perform in the United States the electric cars for the us market.
The tweets muscular of the president-elect would they be more effective than the traditional methods of negotiation between the State and the industry ? In early January, Donald Trump had étrillé Ford and General Motors for their relocations, massive in Mexico. Last week, he was even allowed to stigmatize a japanese manufacturer in 140 signs well felt. “Toyota Motors said it would build a new factory in Baja, Mexico, to produce the Corolla at its destination to the u.s. market, he tweeted on January 5. NO QUESTION ! Build this plant in the United States or pay a fee important at the border,”. , A questioning that has led to a drop of 3% the share of the number one global automotive. What set the stage before the inauguration of a president who has promised to bring back the industrial jobs on american soil, and to rewrite NAFTA, the free trade agreement that unifies the United States, Canada and Mexico since 1994.
Mexico tries to tame Trump
Shrugging, or kick off a protectionist policy lasts ? The new president claims it as a success to the staff the waiver to Ford in the construction of a new plant in Mexico, for $ 1.6 billion. A new one, which has the effect of a bomb, causing the collapse of the local currency to 21 pesos for a dollar, a record. Because in Mexico as in the United States, employment in the automobile is a symbol of the industrial health. In San Luis Potosi, where Ford was to settle, the governor has demanded the repayment of investments made upstream by the authorities. the “The very bad news is the result of the pressure of the elected President of the United States”, sorry Jaime Chalita Zarur, president of the local employer.
The volte-face of Ford doesn’t take off in Mexico, its status as a power-auto – 3.4 million vehicles produced last year, and $ 5.1 million projected for 2020. But twenty years of Nafta has placed Mexico in a position of absolute dependence with regard to its larger neighbour. The United States absorbs 80% of its exports, and are the cause of half of all direct investment. Gold, Donald Trump not only wants to renegotiate the agreement, but also impose a tax on transfers of foreign exchange of 35 million Mexicans settled in the United States, to finance the construction of a wall between the two countries. In an emergency, the President Enrique Peña Nieto has just assigned the portfolio of foreign affairs, Luis Videgaray, one close to the future us administration, to try coaxing Donald Trump.
The United States, the new Ireland of the NAFTA?
The multinational, they are pragmatic. the “We will follow with attention the decisions and movements of the american president”, he just say the CEO of Toyota, Akio Toyoda. “We are pragmatic, we will adapt to any situation, provided that this is the same rule for everyone,” said Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Renault-Nissan, Las Vegas, where took place the last week on THESE. “I’m not worried about the medium-term, as the relations Usa-Mexico in the automotive sector and the value chain are totally interrelated,” says the boss of a major supplier of automobile for that “Mexico would remain ultra-competitive”, even if the duty went to 35%.
The real change is rather to be sought in the decrease in the corporate tax rate to 15% promised by Trump. It “would make the United States the new republic of Ireland”, said David Dollar, a consultant to the world Bank, in an analysis published by the Brookings Institution. It is good news that deserved perhaps a gesture of the hand of Bill Ford, the chairman of the builder, Donald Trump has called on the phone in November. And even on the part of those who, as the boss of the Volkswagen brand, Herbert Diess, claim not to have had any contact with him.
(with Lamia Oualalou, Mexico)