Thursday, November 17, 2016

Unemployment rises to 10%, a thorn in the foot of Hollande, Le Figaro

The unemployment rate, which declined from a year ago, is back in a slight increase in q3 to 10%, less than a month before the possible candidature of the president for a second term. Young people are the main victims of the increase.

Bad news for the French, and for Francis Holland: the unemployment rate, which declined from a year ago, is now a slight rise in the 3rd quarter, less than a month before the possible candidature of the president for a second term. The indicator of the Insee, as measured according to the standards of the international labour Office (ILO), increased by 0.1 percentage points between July and September, reaching 9.7% of the active population in metropolitan france, and 10.0% in France. These two rates, which had reached mid-2016 to their lowest level since 2012, deviate from those observed in the beginning of the mandate of François Hollande: from 9.3% in france, 9.7% for overseas. Evolution quarterly, however, is to analyze with caution, since it is within the margin of error for the indicator (+/-0,3 pt).

Although small, this increase falls bad for the president, who will announce whether he is running or not a second term of office before December 15, and which has conditioned the decision to an inversion of the curve.”The trend remains favorable on a year”, argues, however, in a press release the minister of Labour Myriam El Khomri, who sees it as a “consistent trend with good results” on the job market. The unemployment rate is still down 0.4 percentage points compared to the 3rd quarter of 2015.

In total, the Insee records 2,805 million unemployed in metropolitan france, 31.000 over the quarter (+1.1%) and 118.000 public less year on year (-4%). Among them, 1.2 million are looking for work for at least a year, or 4.3% of the active population, a stable rate for a year.

The young people, that François Hollande has erected in the “priority” of his five-year term, are the main victims of the rise in unemployment. The rates of 15-24 years climbed to 25.1% (+1.2 point) and is approaching dangerously close to its record high at the end of 2012 (25.4 percent). The rate of older workers (50 years or more) flirts also with its highest level reached in mid-2015. It rises by 0.5 point, to 7.0%. Only the age class, intermediate (25-49 years old) has seen its situation improve over the quarter (0.2 percentage points), as on a year (0.8 of a percentage point).

The rise in unemployment was not intended by the Insee, which was expected in October on a stabilization of the rate to 9.6%. Moreover, the trend recorded by Insee, is contradictory with that of the Pôle emploi, which has seen 35.200 people leave his class A (without activity) in the quarter, and with the creations net job, who have reached the 3rd quarter, their highest level since the crisis of 2008.

in addition, the increase can be relativized by the fact that the “halo” around unemployment” is, for him, started down again. These people who want to work, but not counted because they are not actively seeking or are not immediately available, were 1.5 million in the 3rd quarter, a number down from 26,000 on the quarter, but is up 70,000 from a year ago. This may mean that, over the quarter, people previously discouraged have returned to seek work.

Another positive point, the number of persons in underemployment, that is to say, who would like to work more, decreasing by 0.4 percentage point to 6.3%. It is, for the most part, of part-time workers suffered.


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