Tuesday, November 29, 2016

France : the GDP recorded a growth of 0.2% in the third quarter – The Point

The growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) has indeed capped at 0.2% in France in the third quarter, despite an increase of the investment, according to a second estimate released on Tuesday by the Insee. This figure, in line with the forecasts published during the summer by the institute of statistics, following the screeching halt suffered by the French economy in the second quarter (0.1 per cent). It is mainly due to the weakness of consumption, remained stable between July and September, but also by the poor external trade figures, leaded by the increased imports, precise statistical institute.

In retail, the total production of goods and services increased by 0.5 %, whereas it had contracted by 0.2 % between April and June. The acceleration is particularly marked in the services sector (+ 0.7 per cent), construction (+ 1 %) and refining (+ 13.6 per cent), affected in the second quarter by the demonstrations against the law work. The production is in the reverse folded for transport equipment (- 3.2 %) and in energy (- 2,5 %), the general production of goods has, for its part, stabilized (0 %, after 0.7 per cent). On the quarter as a whole, the investment has increased slightly (+ 0.2% after 0 % in the previous quarter), despite a further decline in worrying of investment companies (- 0.4 %, after – 0,2 %).

Acceleration in the fourth quarter

in addition, the consumption of French households goods rebounded 0.9% in October after having declined 0.4% in September. This increase is explained in particular by the recovery of energy expenses, as well as purchasing equipment, housing and clothing, ” says the institute of statistics. Insee also revised the evolution of consumption expenditure for the month of September, down 0.4% from – 0.2 % announced previously.

As for the foreign trade, it has again degraded, due to a rebound in imports (+ 2.5% after – 1,7 %). “In total, the external balance contributes negatively to GDP growth “, “to – 0.6 percentage points,” said Insee.

The institute of statistics predicts an acceleration of growth in the fourth quarter, which is expected to reach 0.4 per cent. This rebound, however, would be too low to offset the air hole suffered by the French economy in the spring. On the year as a whole, the growth should not exceed 1.3 %, according to the statistical institute. A figure lower than the 1.6 percent originally anticipated by the Insee, but also to the prognosis official of the government. In its draft finance law (PLFR), published in mid-November, the latter was lowered from 1.5% to 1.4% of its target for 2016, in order to take account of the poor economic performance of the last few months. But this figure is more optimistic than the one expected by the european Commission and the IMF (1.3 per cent), but also by the OECD, which now expects a growth of only 1.2%, identical to that of 2015.


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