about THE SCAN, ECO – For the president, who has linked his candidacy to a reversal of the unemployment curve, the goal is already reached. The changes over the past few months of registration with the employment and the unemployment rate clearly shows the rollover. An increase tonight in the number of unemployed would therefore have no impact on his decision.
Ira or ira? As we know, François Hollande has until December 15 to decide whether to attend or not to the primary of the left convened in January. Didier Guillaume, the patron saint of the PS senators, even indicates that he will communicate the result of his reflection on the 10th December. In the balance, there is of course the satanic inversion of the unemployment curve, sustainable, to which the head of the State has long linked his candidacy. Suffice to say that the number of registrations at Pôle emploi at the end of October, the ministry of Labour should make public this Thursday evening at 18 hours, will be closely scrutinized at the Elysée palace and rue de Solferino. And this, as much as a rise in prices would be of the worst effect and complicate the spot of communicating with the head of State.
Where are we precisely, 53 months after the election of François Hollande? To date, the number of people registered at Pôle emploi in category A (without any activity) since the beginning of the quinquennium has grown 617.400 in the whole of France. In comparison, it had increased over the same period under Nicolas Sarkozy of 685.100, or a delta upper 67.700 but with the 2008 international crisis in more… The right will not fail to put forward the figure of 1.19 million unemployed over the counter François Hollande (against 983.700 during the backtracking previous 206.800 less) if we add the number of jobseekers in reduced activity (working more or less than 78h in the month) listed in categories B and C. A figure to be taken, however, with a grain of salt since it is necessary to know that 40% of the registered class C ($ 1.25 million people at the end of September) are working full time but looking for another job…
For François Hollande, the unemployment curve has actually already reversed, and the meaning of the figure of October, published this evening, do nothing to change this trend
So if we take the only class A, the balance-sheet Holland in 53 months is catastrophic: more than 600,000 registered with Pôle emploi since his election -while the crisis has not been “meteoric” as in 2008-2009, but just “creepy” in 2012-2013, to resume the qualifiers hazardous to Michel Sapin, the Finance minister and a close friend of the president – to his passive, is objectively too much for someone who, in the position of challenger 5 years ago, asked the outgoing president to not represent himself having regard to the level of its liabilities.
But, to have a complete vision, it is not necessary to look at the unemployment figures in static, it has to be dynamic. And here, the angle of view is different. In trend, and based on the only category A, the inversion of the curve is a reality. The number of people registered at Pôle emploi has declined 94.100 since the beginning of the year in France and 65.100 about a year. In nine months, unemployment has fallen 5 times (or, on average, more than a month on two), which is nearly as much in less than a year as on the whole of the first 44 months of the quinquennium (6 drops).
In addition, the reflux can be saved at the end of September (-67.100) is the highest ever recorded since February 1996, date in which begins the series of statistics from registrations monthly to Pôle emploi. Finally, if one takes the other leading indicator in relation to unemployment, and that the experts, such as the pro-Holland, prefer to now put forward, the unemployment rate also decreased in trend. It is past one year from 10.5% to 10% of the active population in the whole of France, making it almost insignificant increase of 0.1 percentage point recorded in the third quarter of 2016, which corresponds, more or less, to the margin of error regarding 3 months.
as Much as to say, therefore, that the figure that the ministry of Labour will reveal that Thursday night was not much interest. Or at least that it will not weigh into the choice, to be or not, François Hollande, for whom the unemployment curve has actually already been reversed in a sustainable way. And these are not minor blips, either in the inscriptions monthly with the employment or the unemployment rate is the quarterly change anything. Just an increase, especially if it is large, of the order of 50,000 as in the month of August, would complicate the drafting of its language elements and would lose to the president a little more credit with the public.
Despite the monthly fluctuations sometimes strong, so these are 10,000 people who come each month, on average, of the category A
Whatever it is 18 hours, things are already folded. If the figure is on the decline, so much the better: it will then corroborate the little music heard in the last few months in the camp Holland, according to which “the inversion, it is there”, to paraphrase Myriam El Khomri. If it is not too much higher, so much the worse: it does not quash the movement started from the end of 2015. The only case that would be catastrophic for the head of State would be an increase of more than 65,000 unemployed people, the annihilation of so the decrease since a year and tapering the one seen on 2016. However, it is highly unlikely: it would require that the increase is six times greater than that recorded on average since may 2012 (+11.650 unemployed/month), which has never happened since the beginning of the quinquennium and only once (in February 2009 with an increase of 78.200 unemployed in category A) since 1996…
In any case, if the head of the State decides not to represent themselves, this will not be because it has around 600,000 unemployed in addition to the counter in France accordance with the statement of Pôle emploi (132.000 only in metropolitan France, according to the more restrictive definition of the ILO), but for other reasons, like maybe the fear of the humiliation of being eliminated in the primary of January.