Thursday, November 24, 2016

Behind the decline in unemployment, shadows still remain – Release

François Hollande has he kept his promise to reverse the unemployment curve ? Yes, we are to believe the figures Pole Employment, published on Thursday. At least those focusing on the unemployed registered in category A (without any activity). In October, their number has decreased by 0.3 %, i.e. 11 700 job seekers at least in metropolitan France. An evolution, certainly very slight, but that adds to the significant decline of 66 300 the number of students registered in the same category in the previous month. And should therefore be sufficient to Holland to justify this “trend” down.

Since 2012, five times, and the head of State has linked his candidacy to a decrease in unemployment. A promise first made for the year 2013, and then postponed, the April 18, 2014, to 2016. On this day, in Clermont-Ferrand, he says : “I have no reason to be a candidate or no chance of being re-elected if unemployment does not fall by 2017.” Before specifying, in July, that “it is in the year 2016 that this decline in credible must appear”.

Boom. three weeks ago the deadline to be a candidate in the primary of the socialist to the presidential election of 2017, now is the time for the verdict. And the latter is rather favourable to Holland. Since the beginning of the year, the category Has, the more observed, has in effect dropped 2.08 %. 73 800 unemployed less. The year 2016, although unfinished, is so marked, for the time being, by a slight but undeniable reversal of the curve of unemployment of job seekers registered in category A. And despite a few hazards, as in the month of August, which has seen a surge of 50 to 200 unemployed people. Of what to comfort relatives of the President. Start with the minister of Labour, Myriam El Khomri, which evokes a decrease in the “structural character” and states that “this second consecutive monthly decrease door to more than 100 000 the decrease in the number of job seekers without activity since the beginn ing of the year, averaging 10 200 job seekers every month”. And to add, just to support the “good” news that“it is the largest annual drop seen since may 2008″. Proof, according to it, the resumption of job creation, and especially to salaried employment with a merchant, but also the effectiveness of “the measures to support the activity and development of employment implemented since 2012″, such as the SIEC, the “pact of responsibility and solidarity” or help Hiring SMES.

“Battle”. the fact Remains that, so far, all indicators are not looking good. Thus, if the number of unemployed in category B (which worked 78 hours or less in the month) decreases in October (to 1.3 %), category C (unemployed who last worked more than 78 hours) continue to increase (+ 0,2 %). Especially, the tendency for 2016, is far from being as pleasing to the President. Thus, since January, the class B, composed of unemployed people who for some have only worked a handful of hours, has increased from 19 400 in a year. As to C, she has won 55 500 registered more. Combined, the three categories (A, B, and C) have not seen a decrease, but a slight increase of the order of 0.02 % (1 100 unemployed less).

the Other category that goes crescendo in 2016 : D, which welcomes in particular the unemployed in training. In ten months, it has increased to 18,54 %, or 50 to 700 job seekers. An increase due, in part, to the implementation of the plan of “500 000 further education and training”, aimed at the unemployed. This could partly explain, according to some critics of the Netherlands, the decrease in the number of unemployed in category A, because of their switching temporarily in D in the case of training. A line much less looked at her, each month, when the publication of the unemployment figures. Lastly, another shade in the table : if the number of unemployed has fallen by 2016, the number of students registered for the class, is always much more above, than in the beginning of the quinquennium. Is 556 700 additional unemployed persons since may 2012 (compared to 753 000 for the five years of Sarkozy). And nearly 1.2 million more than ten years ago, in November 2006. If the “battle” employment “bear”, as pointed out Holland on Thursday, she looks so “long” by reconnecting with the figures before the economic crisis.

Amandine Cailhol


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