The organization anticipates the effect of the fiscal stimulus packages adopted by the Japanese, and promised by the president-elect of the United States Donald Trump, but feared the consequences of the temptation of protectionism.
The OECD expects world growth to achieve a “modest” rebound from 2018 under the effect of the fiscal stimulus plans such as the one promised by Donald Trump in the United States, but also to address a severe warning about the dangers of protectionism. The organization has maintained this Monday with no change to its forecast for global growth in 2016 to 2.9% and raised very slightly that of 2017 to 3.3% (+0.1%), as a “soft growth,” she called to combat since the beginning of the year, raising the budget expenditure.
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the Organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD), the Paris-based perceive, however, positive signals that could begin to have an effect on the global activity from 2018, with a bounce “modest” growth reaching 3,6% under the effect of the stimulus packages adopted by countries such as Japan and promised by the president-elect, american Donald Trump. “The budget initiatives could catalyze activity in the private sector and thus give a stimulus to the global economy for it to reach growth rates modestly higher by 2018,” said the chief economist of the OECD Catherine Mann, who presents for the first time its forecasts for 2018.
The rebound would be supported primarily by the United States, the world’s largest economy will be back in 2018 a vigorous growth rates of 3%, the double of this year (1.5%) and more than the 2.3% expected for 2017. The president-elect Donald Trump has promised to make a major investment plan in the United States of approximately $ 550 billion to renovate the infrastructure, an ambition viewed positively by the IMF and the OECD, who see in this plan of massive investment as a lever to revive growth in the world.
On the other hand, pledges, protectionist have less odds. “Protectionism, and the inevitable trade retaliation that will follow could greatly mitigate the effects of budgetary initiatives,” said Catherine Mann, without mentioning the name of the elected president.
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“Japan adopts a recovery plan 246 billion euros
Japan, who announced this spring, a fiscal stimulus plan, will impact on its growth more modest than in the United States, but the OECD has, however, greatly raised its forecast for this year to 0.8% (+0,2%), with a similar trend for the next year at 1% (+0.3%), but a decline of 0.8% expected for 2018.
Not boulversement in Europe
On the other hand, the OECD does not-for the time of great upheavals in Europe, where the expenditure budget is locked down to 3% deficit in the stability pact. Germany, the main economy of the euro zone, is expected to stagnate at 1.7% from 2016 to 2018.
The OECD lowers its growth forecast for France this year to 1.2% (-0,1%), below the 1.4% projected by the government. It would amount to 1.3% in 2017, and 1.6% in 2017. As for the Uk, the OECD maintains his pessimism after the referendum on the Brexit. If they revise slightly upwards its forecast for this year to 2% (+0,2%), it expects to a halt next year, with a growth that is expected to drop to 1.2% and slowed further by 2018 to 1%.
The organization also expects the continuation of the slowdown in chinese growth, which is expected to reach 6.7% this year, 0.2% more than expected, but down 6.4 per cent next year and 6.1% in 2018. Opposite trend for India: the OECD expects that this country maintains its strong growth, rising from 7.4% in 2016, to 7.6% next year and 7.7% in 2018. Brazil, which is experiencing a strong recession of 3.4% this year, it should get its head out of the water by 2017 (0%), for the return to growth in 2018 to 1.2%.