The promise of a reversal of the unemployment curve, which François Hollande has conditioned a candidacy to his own succession is about to be held.
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The good news is rare for François Hollande. Him, whose candidature in the presidential election of 2017 is being undermined by the release of the book ” A president should not say that… “, or by the announcement of the coming of Emmanuel Macron in the race to the Elysée, has had the opportunity, Thursday, November 24, in enjoy.
The promise to which he was conditioned potential candidacy to his own succession, as the observers of the political life do not fail to remind him is about to be held : the reversal of the unemployment curve.
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Coincidence or organization skillful and far-sighted, it is moving in the Open Classroom, a start-up specialized in online training, as the head of State, accompanied by Myriam El Khomri, minister of labour, welcomed the good figures from the Pôle emploi.
According to statistics compiled by the public institution and the Rue de Grenelle, the number of jobseekers in class A has dropped from 11 700 in October. Is – 0.3% compared to September. This category, which includes the unemployed without any activity and obliged to look for work, is the most scrutinized, so they are now 3.4 million. The decline is certainly less pronounced than in September (– 66 300), but it is there.
The symbolic threshold of 100 000
The ” battle “ for the job is ” long “ but ” bear “, has congratulated François Hollande on the margins of its movement. That is important, therefore, for the head of State that his promise should be held with a two year delay. Or that Malek Boutih, mp (Essonne, socialist Party, PS) and former president of SOS racisme, is spread in the media for him to abandon the presidential race.
The figures of Thursday are timely, at a time when Mr Hollande is preparing to declare himself a candidate for the primary PS, in the next few weeks, according to his entourage. the ” Obvious decline in the number of unemployed in France, it is not to deny it, it is the reality “ said, on Twitter, Michel Sapin, minister of economy and finance, in support of always the current president.
In fact, the decline is even more significant year-on-year. All in all, they are 101 300 to get out of unemployment since the beginning of 2016. Or, writing the labour ministry in a press release, ” the largest annual decline observed since may 2008 “.
” We do not doubt that the trend was there. We have passed the symbolic threshold of 100 000 unemployed less, and this is very encouraging, says one in the entourage of the Mme El Khomri, we are getting closer slowly but surely to the forecast national association [the managing body of the unemployment insurance] who sees the number of unemployed to decline by 124 000 in 2016. “the Other good news is that the situation of job-seekers long-term : in one year, they are 20 000 to get out of this situation of extreme precariousness.
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” Whatever the end by which it takes, it is undeniable, the unemployment decrease “, ” says Bertrand Martinot, an economist and former general delegate for employment and vocational training from 2008 to 2012.
” This dynamic has been bolstered by all the support measures to the activity and development of employment implemented since 2012, including the tax credit for competitiveness and employment [CICE], the pact of responsibility and solidarity, and help Hiring SME “, wants to believe the ministry of labour. Has the prime minister’s office, it is pointed out that the premium of hiring, ” which encourages SMES to take the plunge recruitment “ has been the subject of more than 900 000 requests since the beginning of the year.
Inversion ” from a point at the top “
It is true that the statistics of job creations have been excellent in recent quarters. Thus, 210 000 jobs were created in the tradable sector in the French economy over the last eighteen months. Over the period from July to September only, the French economy has opened 52 000 additional jobs in the private sector. The best figure since 2008 (the year of the crisis), according to the French economic Observatory (OFCE).
” The employment policies undertaken by the government have certainly allowed the economy to create more employment than it would have done with the growth rates that we have. Today there is a real dynamic’, says Mathieu Plane, economist at the OFCE.
For the economist, the famous curve has begun to reverse in the third quarter of 2015. But, beware, ” it is not opposite from a point at the top, holds it to emphasize, the unemployment will be in no case below the level of 2012 “, ” he says.
More worryingly, if one looks at the figures more closely, the increase is considerable since the election of Mr Hollande : 598 000 additional job seekers are reported in category A.
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” It is simple, regrets Bertrand Martinot, we are, with Italy, almost the only country in Western Europe to have a significant increase in unemployment since 2012 “. A balance sheet, of which Mr. Holland will be carrying once in the presidential race.
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