About a year, the 145 100 jobs have been created in the private. A total sufficient to absorb the increase of the active population and, once taken into account the mechanisms put in place by the government as the training of the unemployed and the assisted contracts, to reduce unemployment.
But the Insee announced at the same time a relapse in industrial production in the month of September (by 1.1 %) after its rally in the month of August which had put an end to three consecutive months of decline. Industry, a sector in a situation of destruction net job since 2001, continued to record weak performance, its production, which has stagnated on a year, remaining well below its pre-crisis levels.
The acting in rise
The creations of jobs in the third quarter have been brought by the acting, which has seen an increase of 29 600 posts, and the tertiary sector. The construction was returned to his hand with a small positive balance for the first time since the spring of 2012, while the signs of recovery in the housing market nine multiplied.
In a statement, the minister of Labour Myriam El Khomri welcomed the acceleration of job creation in the tradable sector, which recorded their sixth quarter of positive consecutive. It is a testimony, according to it, ” the renewed confidence of companies in particular thanks to the support measures and the acceleration of the recovery of the activity put in place by the government (pact of responsibility, CICE, help hiring SMES) “.
Reflects ” the prudence of business “
To economists, the trend remains fragile, especially in the light of the weakness of the economic growth. It did not exceed 1.1% over the twelve months to the end of September, and should with difficulty reach 1.3 % this year, according to the latest forecasts (including that of the european Commission present Wednesday),” It remains below the threshold of 1.5%, still found it necessary to lower really the unemployment “, emphasizes Ludovic Martin, an economist with Credit Agricole.
In this context, the sharp upturn in the interim, whose numbers had been flat for three quarters, may be encouraging, the sector is considered as a good leading indicator of the job market, is Axelle Lacan, an economist from the institute COE-Rexecode.
“, But it may also reflect the conservatism of companies, who prefer to remain flexible in terms of employment, “, she adds. For the economist, it is still necessary to wait to see if the measures to support the competitiveness put in place by the government, which have already led to an improvement in corporate profit margins, will lead to investment and jobs.
Achieved zero growth
The figures of activity released Thursday confirm in any case the structural problems of the industry, the production of which has had only four months of growth over the last twelve months.
Even revised to the upside, the rebound in the month of August (+2.2 percent), which corrected the effects of the strike in the refineries of the end of the spring has fizzled. In the end, the acquis of growth of industrial production at the beginning of the fourth quarter is zero, which means that the number of October will be crucial to whether it will be able to contribute positively to the GDP of the period, points out in a note by François Cabaud, an economist at the bank Barclays.