Wednesday, November 9, 2016

United States. “The economic program of Trump will be catastophique. “- Ouest-France

This election, it is a calling into question of the economic policy of Obama ?

I do not believe that this is a reaction to the economic policy of Barack Obama. Obama is probably the immediate past president the most popular. This is an important point because the macro-economic situation of the United States is rather good. 4.9% unemployment, which is very low, almost a historic level. They have, at nearly every point of view, erased the impact of the financial crisis of 2008. The GDP is maintained. The growth is not very high, between 2% and 3%, but it is rather good, considering the situation of crisis.

Precisely how going to the country ?

What offends Americans, what are the inequalities between the rich and the poor. You can’t accuse him, neither the media nor the political, not to have taken the measure of these inequalities. But the policies have not been able to stop it. The 3 % wealthiest accounted for 30.5% of total revenue in 2013, against 27.2 % in 2010.

Donald Trump has been elected on an economic program that will be safe, reassuring. He reassured many Americans in the face of changes that may be gone too quickly. Before being seen as protectionist, it is perceived as protective.

If it implements its program, it is a whole new world that will draw…

quite. He wants to tax it at 45 % of the products imported from China. If it applies it, it is sure that the Chinese are not going to let it go.

studies have estimated the consequences of its proposals. A study by the Peterson institute for international economics, based in Washington, has evaluated its trade policy to 27 million additional unemployed persons.

If he did what he said, this will be dramatic. All that critical of Trump, it is this which has been the strength of american society these last seventy years : the international trade, openness, globalization. The United States enriched themselves on this opening. No other country, except maybe China in recent years, has caught up. In a world that is ever more rich, the United States is even more so.

With the recent slowdown in emerging economies, as part of Brics, the United States resumed their place as the engine of global growth. If the american market closes, and as the situation deteriorates, this will have an impact on the planet as a whole.

Is-what his program is feasible ?

This is possible if, as Donald Trump has wanted the United States out of the world trade Organization. His promises are exempted from the international commitments in trade facilitation. Donald Trump is able to go to the end and say ” this is not serious, it is stronger, it will come out of it all. “ Even if this output will take time, it will not prevent him to apply his measures.

which will hinder the implementation of its economic programme, what are the consequences of the measures he was proposing, which would soon occur.

It is ?

The majority of the clothes that are sold in the United States come from China. If you impose customs duties of 45 %, it means that these products are worth 45 % more expensive. You believe that the Americans are going to accept it ? The challenge will come from the street because of the price increase is going to be immediate. At that time, he will be forced to change course.

All the world’s criticism of free trade today. But is it that people have thought about the consequences that this has had on their daily lives ? Be able to afford a flat screen for two francs six under and still cheaper, to pay for clothes that are cheap. This is the free trade.

he says He will lower taxes. Very well. But increase customs duties, it is greatly increase taxes for all Americans.

What of its proposal to impose a tax on businesses that relocate ?

If Donald Trump fetches those jobs, we do pay the same fare. Therefore, increasing again the prices in the United States. This is going to be met in the short-term part of the voters of Trump but to make products much more expensive, and finally re-create the unemployment. The Americans will not have the means to buy as much as today.

If he hoped that companies will relocate in the United States, he made illusions. If he puts in place tax incentives, companies will not create these jobs. They will be replaced by machines.

Is it going to be supported by the elected Republicans in Congress, a majority favourable to the free exchange ?

It is likely that yes in a first time, since he has just been elected. But the american Congress is a real counter-power. They might mitigate the policy announced by Donald Trump. All Republicans that they are, there is a real separation of powers in the United States, unlike France. The Congress, the institution responsible for voting laws, is truly independent of the executive. It is not uncommon for a representative to vote in a direction opposite to the one of his party.

there is also a huge uncertainty on its policy. There is nothing to say, after a very virulent, pro-active, that it turns to more moderation.

Is it that the European Union should worry about ?

Yes the level of economic growth. The United States will remain the engine of global growth. This is not the time for us to have a u.s. market closed. But the impact may be positive. If Donald Trump gives up the Nafta – the free trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, and wrinkles with Canada, we can imagine that this reinforces actually our relations with this country.

A number of american businessmen who do not want to work under Trump, who feel penalized by its policy, could reposition itself in Europe. The easiest option for them, because the links between the EU and the United States are strong. The EU is the main trading partner and financial of the United States.


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