Wednesday, November 9, 2016

The election of Donald Trump is going to be an earthquake for the world – The World

The republican candidate has based his campaign on the promise to ” make his greatness to America.” What are the consequences for the rest of the world ?

World | • updated | By

If the vote for the Brexit, the 23 of June, has been a earthquake for the european Union, the election of Donald Trump at the head of the United States, the first military power, is an earthquake for the world.

Read our live on the victory of Donald Trump

The republican candidate has based his campaign on the promise of ” make greatness to America “. This greatness, however, was not understood by the projection of american power in the outside, but rather on a priority given to the return of the well-being and prosperity of Americans at home. The country ” is in ruins “, ” said Mr. Trump, we need to start the rebuild. For the rest of the world, this gives a signal of retreat and isolationism.

It is, in reality, quite a few of the thing on the concrete programme Donald Trump’s foreign policy as its advisors in this area are little known ; the establishment washingtonien and the small world of think tanks specializing in international relations, who advise usually the candidates in foreign policy, are kept at a distance from him and his unorthodox views. But Mr. Trump has regularly issued a few key ideas that provide a canvas for what could be its diplomacy.

Vis-à-vis Europe, Donald Trump, who has supported the vote in favour of the Brexit criticizing the european Union, considers that it is up to the Europeans to take charge of and, especially, to fund their defence, rather than to shelter under the umbrella of the us. And NATO cannot operate, and the United States come to the aid of an ally in the event of an attack, that if the european States are increasing their defence budgets.

Place american interests first “

Donald Trump is critical of american interventionism abroad, and the cycle of military operations launched by the George W. Bush administration. It is, in this sense, anti-neo-conservative. President Obama himself had promised to ” bring the troops home “, but the reality of the Middle East forced him to maintain or to launch a number of operations. Mr. Trump wants to be more radical, while wishing to increase the size of the american army : the international coalition (including France) are currently engaged with the United States, in particular on the theatre of iraq and syria, it is a new deal. Violently hostile to the ” jihadists “, which he accused Hillary Clinton of having begotten them, he promised to ” knock “ – but did not specify how.

” We will agree with all countries that want to agree with us “ : in his victory speech Wednesday morning, president-elect Trump has wanted to show himself conciliatory, stating that he would ” american interests first “. A big question mark regarding relations with Russia, which have seriously deteriorated in the past year. Donald Trump has, on several occasions, sung the praises of Vladimir Putin, he considers ” a better leader than Barack Obama “, and the us intelligence services have accused Russia of being behind the hacking of e-mail accounts that have embarrassed the camp of Hillary Clinton during the campaign. But the two men do not know each other personally, and the Russian president refrained from wishing publicly for the victory of the republican candidate. As Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump is sensitive to power relations. His fascination for the man with the iron fist of Moscow, will go up to accept some of his referred to on the neighbourhood of Russia (Ukraine, Georgia) and the Middle East, or even the idea of a second Yalta which aspirerait Mr. Putin ? The republican candidate remained very evasive on these questions. But you can bet that he is to avail himself of the old road to the cold war, who will find some familiar elements in the current landscape, and will not be willing to sacrifice american interests in Europe.

Donald Trump wants to denounce the Paris agreement on climate change : will he ? Another focus of his campaign has focused on the rejection of globalization and international trade agreements, defendants have destroyed the jobs in the United States. One of the big beneficiaries of this globalization, China, is so in his viewfinder. He wants to establish tariff barriers on chinese products, he rejects the free trade agreement with Asia TPP (trans-Pacific Partnership) and has offered to renegotiate the free trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, concluded by Bill Clinton. It does not address the tensions in the south China sea. On these very big issues, which are crucial for the United States, he will have to deal with another strong man, the president Xi Jinping.

Another consequence of a victory Trump : it will bolster the movements and populist leaders around the world, from Europe to Asia. This will necessarily have an impact on international relations.

Finally, the american institutions are giving more latitude to the president in foreign policy than in domestic policy, where the “checks and balances” are used as guard rails. This is not good news for the rest of the world. But we can also imagine that the reality and pragmatism will lead the president Trump to moderate some of his views, as has been the case for Ronald Reagan, and that the elite republican foreign policy, after their initial reluctance, the will rejoin once to the power. The period of transition, during which he will make his future team by 20 January, will provide indications anxiously awaited in the whole world.

also Read: “For the whole world, the victory of Trump is a leap into the unknown


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