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Is a new bluff to reassure the country and curb capital outflows, or negotiations between Athens and its creditors – the International Monetary Fund (IMF), European Central Bank (ECB) and European Union – are they finally this time entered their final phase
Monday, May 18 at night? the Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras and his Finance Minister, Yanis Varoufakis, have both promised the conclusion of an agreement in the coming days. “By the end of the week,” said Yanis Varoufakis during a long interview late on the Star private TV channel.
Before the powerful combination entrepreneurs and industrialists of Greece (SEV), the Prime Minister himself had confirmed a few hours before “being in the home straight” tracks and presented compromise . “The primary surplus goals for this year and next year will be revised downwards (…) and the agreement will provide no new cuts in wages and pensions,” he said .
In return, the Greek Government sent Monday to its creditors a proposal on a unified VAT system providing two possible VAT (instead of three today). The first set at 18% for all goods and services outside catering, medicine and books, taxed them, to 9.5%.
Unlock 5000000000 euros by June
These statements come at a time that earlier in the day a document, attributed to the Junker Commission had leaked in the Greek press. Under this plan, considered rather favorable to Athens, Greece’s creditors offer to release by June 5 billion euros on loans 7.2 billion still available under the current aid plan.
The primary surplus targets are set at 0.75% of GDP in 2015, 2% for 2016 and 3.5% for 2017 and 2018.
In exchange, Athens happens undertake to review its VAT system or maintain the tax on real property set up by the previous government.
The thorny issues dear to the IMF, as a further decline pensions or reform of labor law, including the framework of collective redundancies would be postponed to the fall.
The entire Greek press rather positively welcomed this attempt to Brussels to unblock the negotiations, while Greece will soon run out of cash.
Disagree “sloppy”
A plan is flowing between Brussels and Athens, but it is still a working document. It has not yet been officially submitted to Tsipras government and must first be an agreement between the creditors, provides a European source Monday
This is not won.: the reforms advocated by the Commission could well be regarded as insufficient by the IMF, which estimates the Greek pension system still unsustainable, despite the reforms which have already been the last four years.
In an internal document dated May 14, which also has “leaked” last weekend, the IMF noted that he would not accept an agreement “sloppy” ( “quick and dirty” ).
Les 5 billion that the Commission proposes to pay in Athens in its latest document are in fact using that Europe had pledged to Greece in the second aid plan (1.8 billion). For the rest, these are the profits made by the ECB on Greek sovereign bonds repurchased since 2010.
A standoff between the IMF and the Commission will be established there? Not impossible. So far, much repeated in Brussels “that there is much distance between Athens and its creditors and between creditors them.”
different Music
But the Commission since the beginning of the rescue package for Greece, regularly hear a different music to that of the IMF. And for good reason. It is negotiating on behalf of the 19 countries of the eurozone, the Greek loans have an average maturity of thirty-two
With such a time horizon, these lenders prefer to impose long-term reforms rather than requiring measures to ensure prompt repayment of their claims. Unlike the IMF, which lends to much shorter term – 10 years -. And therefore requires reforms likely to return to faster money in the coffers of the country to which it lends
More generally the Commission since the start of lengthy negotiations with Greece, did everything possible for an agreement between Tsipras government and international creditors – President Juncker himself is very involved, providing close
.
Its leaders, Jean-Claude Juncker and the Commissioner of the economy, the Socialist Pierre Moscovici, hammered for weeks: “there is no Plan B,” “instead of Greece is in the eurozone, “ or ” an agreement is possible “. They are aware of the urgency of the situation, and want to do everything to avoid a “Grexit”.
Line lasts
But the Commission will also have to convince ECB and the most reluctant member states in respect of Athens because if it negotiates on behalf of eurozone countries that have lent to Greece, it’s Eurogroup (meeting of 19 ministers of the euro area) that the political decision will be made an agreement with Alexis Tsipras.
And, in this case, not all countries are not aligned with the Commission. Some, like Germany, are rather hard line on the IMF. “And no agreement will do without the IMF,” provides a European source close to the negotiations.
Yanis Varoufakis reminded that if “rupture had never been on the agenda of discussions, “ the inability to reach an agreement very quickly could lead Greece to be unable to pay in June both civil service salaries, pensions and repayment maturities IMF (nearly 1.5 billion euros for the month of June).
“I would prefer to default to the IMF that pensioners before” was repeated Finance Minister on Monday night.
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