France: The European Commission (finally) more optimistic! – Boursier.com

(Boursier.com) – As announced in the press this weekend, the European Commission raised its growth forecasts for France and is more optimistic about the fall in unemployment and the deficit. In updating its forecast published on Tuesday, it is indeed a GDP at 1.1% this year, against + 1% projected last winter. For 2016, Brussels shows even more confident than Bercy anticipating a growth of 1.7% against 1.6% last winter and + 1.5% estimated by the team of Michel Sapin …

support consumption

The renewed activity in France will be driven by private consumption thanks to lower energy prices – oil in particular – but also low inflation – estimated at 0% by Brussels in 2015 – underlines the European Commission. However, the investment recovery will be slow if the Pact of responsibility and CICE will enable enterprises to gradually restore their margins, as the loan conditions are currently very favorable, bosses struggle to regain confidence and capacity production remain under-used, details Brussels. Finally, exports should benefit modestly from the depreciation of the Euro but will be driven by the recovery in global demand.

As for the unemployment rate, the Commission believes that stabilize at 10.3% this year before falling to 10% next year. Last February, the institution was still a rate respectively 10.4% and 10.2%. “The positive impact of economic recovery associated with the reduction of labor costs” will be beneficial, according to European experts

2015 deficit. Brussels and Paris online

Finally, the Commission is also more optimistic about reducing the public deficit. It should stand at 3.8% at the end of 2015 against 4% end of 2014 and -4.1% estimated last winter. Brussels has therefore aligned with the government’s forecast. but was less optimistic than Paris for 2016, anticipating a deficit of -3.5% (against -3.3%). The EU executive body said he considered “additional measures” recorded by the government. Recall that in October, 3.6 billion euros of additional savings were announced as part of Budget 2015. Another element considered: lower interest rates …

  Marianne Davril – © 2015 Boursier.com