executives employment of the recovery is strengthening and even tends to accelerate. It is apparent updated forecasts published today by the Association for the employment of executives (APEC). In early February, the annual barometer was counting on 191,000 white-collar recruitment in 2016, a total that already extended the rebound that began in 2014. Now, based on the forecast growth of 1.6% established by INSEE, the Apec estimated that “fundamental robust growth are now in place” and that recruitment would have to reach the 200,000 mark this year, up 10% year on year, recovering and its highest level since 2008. This trend, established via an econometric model is confirmed by further studies in the field by Apec in both recruitment firms, which show a strong rebound of their activity first half, and in enterprises: 52% say they will hire at least one frame in the third quarter, 4 points higher than last year at this time.
If growth continues at this level, the same momentum should continue in 2017 and 2018, anticipates the barometer, then with 210.000 and 220.000 recruitments in the year. This would be a new record, above the levels reached before the crisis, from 2006 to 2008, without benefit from growth as pronounced then. It reminds that the current increase in executive recruitment, if it results in part from a somewhat more favorable economic environment, is also the result of a structural change of the wage, with increased skill requirements in the background on business of service sector of the economy. The phenomenon is also powered by the age: from 51,000 to 55,000 post cadres should retire each year from 2016 to 2018, against 46,000 to 48,000 per year the last three years.
“remains a major hazard to monitor: the impact of the output of the United Kingdom of the European Union on the French economy” , however nuance Jean-Marie Marx, CEO of Apec. But even if halt the economic recovery, demographic changes and the increasing share of managers in the wage would allow white collar recruitment to remain at a fairly high level, said the study of APEC: on the basis of growth falling to + 0.5% and + 0.7% in 2017 and 2018, his econometric model still on table while some 195,000 executive recruitment both years.
The market is driven especially by the needs in IT, with about 40,000 expected hires. Business functions and R & amp; D are also popular, with more than 30,000 expected recruitments. The service sector is once again the true locomotive market. New for 2016, this recovery finally clear advantage to graduates, neglected in recent years. “There was a catch-up effect and also the consequences of the arrival on the market of the first graduates with new skills and very popular in big data and the cloud in particular” , analysis- Do we in APEC. Up to 45,000 young graduates could then be hired this year, 10,000 more that two years. The record levels before the crisis would not be exceeded but almost caught.
Derek Perrotte, Les Echos
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