Wednesday, July 20, 2016

After Brexit, the IMF lowered its growth forecasts – Le Monde

Le Monde | • Updated | By

The steel plant Tata  Steel in Port Talbot, Wales July 2, 2016

This is now consensus in the coming months, the uncertainties surrounding the Brexit will weigh on the British and European economies. Tuesday, July 19, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has in turn raised its forecast for global growth downward, partly because of the result of the referendum held in the UK on June 23 This is “considerable downside risk for the global economy” says the institution of Washington, in the update of its “World Economic Outlook”. “ This uncertainty would undermine confidence and investment,” she said.

In detail, the global economy should grow by 3.1 % in 2016 and 3.4% in 2017, against 3.2% and 3.5% estimated in April, the IMF provides. According to him, the little Brexit affect the United States, whose economy is expected to grow 2.2% in 2016 and 2.5% in 2017. Similarly, emerging countries and China should not be affected because UK weighs little in their trade.

“Two alternative scenarios”

however, the doubts hanging over the future status of the country should amputate the gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.2 UK in 2016 and 0.9 in 2017 – and it would fall to 1.7% and 1.3% respectively. If the growth of the euro zone was slightly revised upwards for 2016 (+ 0.1 point to 1.6%), due to the good first quarter figures, however it will mark a bit not in 2017 , 1.4% …


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