+ VIDEO The deficit is still very high and the minimal structural recovery despite 21 billion in savings. The tax burden will fall only 0.1 percent of GDP, public spending by 0.4 percentage points.
Competitiveness before deficit reduction. François Hollande, the draft budget law for 2015, presented this morning by the Council of Ministers, assumes a clear choice. “It would be a mistake to reduce our deficits forced march in the context of low growth and low inflation” , argued the head of state during his recent press conference. Forgotten, the deficit target of 3%. It is pushed in 2017 … For the third time, France will seek a new deadline in Brussels to return to the nails.
Discussions promise to be difficult. The operation, conducted by Bercy truth already surprised by its scale: far from being reduced, the deficit will rise this year (from 4.1% to 4.4% of GDP). It refluerait slightly in 2015 (4.3%), thanks to a recovery in growth that has yet to materialize. How much will it translate? The deficit of Social Security will not drop this year, and some in 2015, has already announced the executive. And as for the state, the budget deficit is expected according to our information stand at 75.7 billion next year, after rising to $ 87 billion expected this year, partly due to the investment program for the future .
Another problem is that France will not take either his objectives for the structural deficit (excluding cyclical effects), a highly regarded by the Commission indicator. From 2.5% of GDP in 2013, the structural deficit will still be 2.4% this year and 2.2% next year, while the balance is no longer referred before 2019 The High Council public finances, making a highly anticipated today on the budget review, may not appreciate … In this context, Paris will have to work hard to get leniency from its European partners. Since this summer, it highlights the ‘exceptional circumstances’ related to sluggish growth in the euro area and very low inflation. “The danger is the stagnation of European economies in stagnation. That is to say, a doomsday scenario for growth, “, do not hesitate to dramatize Francois Hollande.
credibility at stake
Faced with this, it takes serious but not fiscal austerity, do you plead to Paris. “We have made a clear choice: either increase taxes or additional budget savings. It is a political choice, “ explained the Prime Minister, Manuel Valls, in his policy speech. Its course: implementing the entire pact responsibility. After declines burdens on businesses voted, not without difficulty, this summer by the majority, the proposed budget includes several tax measures for households, including the removal of the first tranche of the tax schedule on income. A measure to 3.3 billion euros expected to answer tax ras-le-bol of the French, the certification of the polls and the sling part of the majority. But not sure if the government succeeds in convincing: the tax burden will remain stable this year, to 44.7% of GDP, barely down next year (44.6%), as other increases were scheduled: pension contributions, carbon tax, contribution to public service electricity, etc.
But it is on the spending that the executive is the most anticipated component. Government plays its credibility in terms of $ 50 billion in savings for 2015 to 2017, including 21 billion in the first year. Brussels has already announced she was expecting “credible action” . The reforms of parental leave or maternity grant, presented Monday in the social security budget, already controversy. There are “no savings plan that is painless,” Francois Hollande yesterday reacted against criticism. Today is the perimeter of the state and its operators (where 7.7 billion savings are expected next year) that will be scrutinized Bercy. Meanwhile the law on regulated professions and Sunday work …
At a time when the debt crossed the 2,000 billion euros, the control of public expenditure is unavoidable. But François Hollande will fail to reduce weight as much as he wanted. Given the sluggish growth and inflation, they still account for 56.5% of GDP this year and 56.1% in 2015 The head of state intended to lessen the ratio of 3 points 2017
Elsa Conesa, Les Echos
Frederick Schaeffer, Les Echos
No comments:
Post a Comment