The French companies have the opportunity, if they know how to seize opportunities, to capture an additional 30 billion euros in exports next year, driven by a slightly more favorable environment, according to Euler Hermes barometer released Monday October 6.
“An estimated growth in partner countries, the additional demand addressed to France should see a further increase from 15 billion euros in 2014 to 30 billion in 2015 , “say the authors of this study conducted every two years by the credit insurer.
The authors also cite factors such as the decline in the euro, which should account for 11 billion of that sum, and “helpers (slightly) more effective.” The latter, such as the tax credit for Competitiveness and Employment (CICE), if “are often not targeted at export (…) benefit, indirectly, also for exporting”, including a decrease the cost of services, says the chief economist of Euler Hermes, Ludovic Subran.
As for the mood of business leaders, it denotes a willingness to increase their sales of export business in 2015 This is the case of 83% of exporters, with firm intentions for 49% and 34% probable, according to the survey of 826 exporting firms, particularly small and medium businesses and midsize companies, interviewed between May and July.
“Since 2012, it’s at five trade ministers,” quipped Mr. Subran during a press conference. “And 2015 will be the last card, that is to say, either we go or the trade balance France will continue to deteriorate,” he was warned.
Euler Hermes is forecasting a deficit of trade in goods between France and the world of EUR 49 billion in 2015 after 60 billion this year. The government officially targets a deficit of € 53 billion in 2014, against just over $ 60 billion in 2013.
When asked about the subject countries in 2015, companies cite for the first four places of the country outside Europe in order, Brazil, Algeria, India, China. “They want to go further, they feel that this will not happen in Europe,” said Ludovic Subran
But, in reality, the podium for years stubbornly remains the same. Germany Belgium, Spain. “What is interesting about these intentions is that they continue to believe they will go,” says Ludovic Subran about the willingness to export to emerging markets.
55% of exporters fear the risk of unpaid
“On these intentions, there are many who go there without being well prepared” estimated Ludovic Subran, giving examples of French companies that have trusted their client without guard against the risk of non-payment or who have failed to read the website of the customs of the destination country carefully before realizing, too late, that the right of entry for their products is much higher than they thought.
“They want to go. Did they know always go as need? Ca, I doubt it and that’s why these 30 billion if we actually 20, not bad, “he said.
If 55% of exporters fear the risk of non-payment, they are also very likely to fear the lack of financial information on clients (47%) and lack of staff dedicated to export (45%). The latter two concerns are far ahead of that of lack of funding (29%). “French companies are often not large enough to export and innovate,” said economist for France Euler Hermes, Frederic Andres.
The number of French exporters is estimated at 120,700 in 2013 , against 119,300 the previous year, but remains well below that of Germany (250,000) and Italy (200,000).
Only one in three companies plan to invest more for export next year and 35% decided not to invest at all for export. “If she did not want to invest in export is a bit worrying in the medium term as the positive impact that we will see in 2015 may not be sustainable will,” said Frederick Andres.
(With AFP)
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