The European Commission has found very officially on Thursday 7 July that Spain and Portugal have not fulfilled their commitments under the stability and growth pact for their 2015 budgets, as announced Le Monde on Wednesday. This decision is unprecedented since the EU rules have been strengthened, just after the financial crisis of 2007-2008.
It logically opens up a sanctions procedure in sensitive political contexts for the two countries targeted. Spain still has no stable government after the parliamentary elections on 26 June. In Portugal, a leftist coalition installed since early 2016, refuses to “pay” for the errors of the right previously in power.
In 2015, Madrid recorded a public deficit of 5.1% of its gross domestic product (GDP), well above the 4.2% expected by Brussels. Lisbon has posted 4.4% deficit instead of the 2.7% forecast.
The decision is hard to take. Juncker The Commission has chosen to shift the responsibility in part by the Member States. Load the finance ministers of the European Union who meet Tuesday, July 12 in Brussels to formally start the sanctioning process. The Community institution should have found non-compliance of commitments for budgets from May 2015, but at the time, she had preferred not to move, for fear of influencing the general election campaign was in full swing in Spain .
a leniency criticized
And not to give the impression of dealing hardest Portugal, the Commission had also granted him. But this indulgence was highly criticized by Germany, the Netherlands and the European Central Bank, very picky about the respect of the Pact, considered essential for the stability of the euro area. Openly attacked as being too ‘political’, particularly by Eastern countries since the victory of the “Leave” at the British referendum on 23 June, the Commission now prefers to keep a low profile.
Key European bankers could launch the formal procedure of sanctions provided for by Article 126.8 of the Treaty on European Union (EU). “Hard not confirm what the Commission said, the figures of the two countries speak for themselves “ according to a European source close to the matter. From that observation of Ministers, the Commission will have 20 days to write a recommendation for sanctions. “She has a legal obligation to propose sanctions ” the source added.
The fine can theoretically go up to 0.2% of GDP of the countries concerned and be providing for temporary suspension of a minimum of three months of EU structural funds. From their side, the capitals have ten days from the date of the launch of the procedure by the Council to commit to reforms and additional measures to reduce their deficits in order to hope to lower fines.
the “sanctions zero”
the Commission has already sent several signals without ambiguity: if Lisbon and Madrid give pledges, sanctions should remain symbolic. “From zero sanctions are a possibility,” confessed Pierre Moscovici, European Commissioner for Economic Thursday. Everyone recognizes in Brussels that Spain and Portugal were seriously affected by the financial crisis of 2007-2008 and that these countries have undergone years of austerity to get out. “We must take into account the efforts made by both countries’ said Valdis Dombrovskis, first deputy chairman of the commission. “They will have the opportunity to respond to demand a reduction or even a zero setting fines. “
The Spanish Minister of the Economy, Luis de Guindos, said repeatedly in recent weeks that he expected a ” zero euro fine “, while stressing that it was “ unthinkable” that Spain has reduced its public deficit from 9% in 2011 to 5.1% in 2015 despite two years of recession or sanctioned. On July 5, he still said to be “ sure there will be no fine” for “punish Spain would be a decrease of credibility of the eurozone.”
Mariano Rajoy, the current Prime Minister (PP, conservative) Spanish, pressed by Brussels to find a coalition to govern after the end of elections in June, is seeking the nomination of the new Parliament the last week of July to start working to approve a new budget ceiling for 2017. But it has yet found any other party than hers who is willing to give it an absolute majority in Parliament.
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