The US aircraft manufacturer has announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding with the Chinese airline, Xiamen Airlines. With this contract, Boeing could sell up to 30 devices.
The first orders are starting to materialize in Farnborough in Britain on Monday. On this first day of Airshow, Boeing opened the ball and announces the signing of a protocol agreement with Xiamen Airlines. With this contract, the American manufacturer could sell up to 30 737 MAX 200, worth $ 3.39 billion. Other sales seem to materialize, including Airbus. They are however not yet confirmed.
It remains unclear for now whether the show will be a success. In the background, the Brexit and its consequences – yet difficult to quantify – weighs on the sector, and the sector a slowdown in order intake in recent months. “At the end 2015, the order backlog accumulated Airbus and Boeing aircraft accounted for more than 13,000 to produce, but the net order intake fell 35% compared to 2014″, calculated the aeronautical firm AlixPartners analysts.
The last rooms of Singapore in February 2016 and in Dubai in November 2015 were less active, earning less than $ 50 billion in contracts. Well below the 130 billion of orders announced at Le Bourget in June 2015. This deceleration is “normal and natural”, said John Leahy, Airbus commercial director. The last three years, Airbus has recorded over 1,000 net orders. After this period of overheating, Airbus expects a rebalancing of contracts and deliveries (650 planned for 2016).
“There is no bubble. The growth in air traffic is supported by demographic factors and the rise of the middle classes in India and China, “
Some observers, however, see it as a harbinger of a reversal cycle or the bursting of a bubble, particularly in the medium-haul segment. This is the prognosis of AirInsight cabinet. If this scenario proves to be true, Airbus and Boeing, who have committed large increases in production rates, would be taken against the foot.
This scenario is not unanimous. “There is no bubble. The traffic growth is strong (+ 4.5% per year on average, 6% expected in 2016, Ed) by demographics and the growing power of the middle classes in India and China. Between 1981 and 2015, the demand for air travel has increased by 500%. The demand will further increase and accelerate with prices more affordable tickets, for example in China, thanks to cheap oil “, assure the experts of Deloitte. To meet demand, the airlines will take delivery of 35,000 to 38,000 new aircraft in the next twenty years, say Airbus and Boeing. Of this, 70% will be A320 aircraft and Boeing 737.
Aircraft manufacturers have margin
The time to become excessive deliveries also explain the slowdown in orders . A company that signs for A320 today will have to wait ten years before being delivered. And another seven and a half years after Airbus has reached the rate of 60 A320 aircraft per month in 2019!
“But every campaign, Airbus and Boeing will make discounts as they smother the CSeries whose existence is far from being perpetuated”
while a significant part of the order book is at risk, while headwinds have risen: less strong Chinese growth, recurrent crises, terrorist threats … According AlixPartners, delivery lags and order cancellations are possible in Asia Pacific (27% of order books) full of young fragile companies, among aircraft lessors (15% of total) and customers who wish to remain anonymous (15%). But aircraft manufacturers margin. Even reduced by 50%, the number of aircraft to produce even represent five years of activity. A horizon that thrills the rest of the industry.
Another reason for optimism, the competition is far from being able to shake the Airbus-Boeing duopoly. Bombardier delivered late June to Swiss, its first CSeries, its new aircraft over a hundred places. He has over 300 net orders where the A320neo displays more than 4,400 orders at the meter and the 737 Max, 3213. The Canadian CSeries is considered a good airplane. And it can be delivered two years to three years after the order, which may interest customers in a hurry. “But every year, Airbus and Boeing will make discounts as they smother the CSeries whose existence is far from being perpetuated,” says an informed observer. As for the Chinese Comac C919, it is not expected before 2019-2020 in the sky. Or at least a year after Russian MC-21 already two years late.
The challenge speeds
The real problem for aircraft manufacturers is primarily operational. “They must pass the ramp-up that put power suppliers as well as activations of their new devices,” stresses Alain Guillot. According to calculations of Deloitte, the production of commercial aircraft is expected to increase 27% over the next ten years and more than 50% by 2034, to 2,162 aircraft delivered.
In fact, the drag on growth could come from the ability to handle all these new aircraft. The fleet duplicate service every fifteen years. “If nothing is done, a passenger in ten can not travel in the next decade. It should not only increase the volume of tracks and infrastructure, but also develop an optimized air traffic management thanks to big data, “Pascal develops Pincemin, associated with Deloitte, in charge of industry.
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