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A final fireworks orders? The edition 2016 Farnborough Air Show (Great Britain), which opened Monday, July 11 in the suburbs of London, will be the last watered a rain of orders for new aircraft. Once again, the position of the stars seems favorable to manufacturers. Boeing will celebrate its centenary on July 16 and certainly will not want to leave London with an empty purse commands.
Meanwhile, Airbus is also expected to increase the contract announcements. In recent years, Airbus has become accustomed to mostly fill its order book in the second half of the year. “We are always late at the beginning of the year before to catch up in the second half. Orders, we will be “ does one know at Airbus.
For now, Boeing is leading the dance. Particularly in terms of deliveries. When manufacturers are paid by their clients. In the first half, the US has delivered 375 aircraft. It expects to deliver between 740 and 745 over the whole of 2016. This year, Airbus has fallen behind its competitor. It has delivered 298 aircraft as the first half. Slightly down compared to the same period in 2015 when Airbus was then delivered 304 aircraft. However, Airbus expresses “not worried” . Its goal for 2016 is to garner more orders than delivering devices. In 2015, it had provided 635 copies of all its aircraft families
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Strong traffic growth
Nevertheless, optimism Airbus as Boeing is now measured. As if the great years of record orders and deliveries were behind the two manufacturers. “The airlines have largely renewed their fleets in recent years” says Airbus. One way to announce that they will buy fewer aircraft than in the past.
This is also the conclusion of the annual survey of consulting firm AlixPartners, unveiled Wednesday, July 6. According to him: “The order books in commercial aviation will suffer some erosion. “ This observation could announce a cyclical downturn with, the key, a drop in orders and cancellations in series.
The growth of traffic peaks reached since 2005. And she seem to falter. On the contrary. “Market studies predict an increase in air traffic of 4.5% to 5% per year during the next twenty years” says Eric Dalbiès, director of strategy Safran engine. An already frantic pace which nevertheless is still accelerating. “For eighteen months the air traffic growth reached 6% per year” , he said. Despite these signals, more and more executives in the aerospace sector are convinced that the bubble will burst. In 2016, 40% of them, against only a third of it a year ago, fear a reversal.
In recent years, the scheduled airlines were mainly concerned “rebuild their financial cushion thanks to cheap oil “, an advanced manufacturer. They were reunited financial margins with the oil price fall “down 70% from the average recorded between 2010 and 2012″ , AlixPartners analysis. Thus says the consulting firm, “the oil bill which represented 33% of airlines of sales decreased to 25%” now.
“There is no fire! “
Ironically, this new affluence impedes the appetites of companies. “When oil was high, they wanted less greedy aircraft kerosene. Currently, they take longer to position “, says Airbus. This wait does not frighten Airbus as its great American rival. “Today, when a company controls a plane, waiting for eight years before being delivered” reports Airbus. With more than 6,700 aircraft on order, more than ten years of production, the European group has time to see it coming. “There is no fire! “, temper there.
More than filling order books already bursting at the seams, aircraft manufacturers and their suppliers are mainly concerned about their production rates. Their biggest challenge for the coming years. Airbus has planned to release its A320 Neo sixty channels by mid-2019. tier 1 supplier, the most important level for an aircraft manufacturer, Safran is persuaded to keep up. However, the engine has to manage the handover from his bestseller, the CFM56 engine, which will celebrate at Farnborough, the sale of its 30 000 th copy, and his successor, LEAP, designed to power the A320neo and 737 MAX, consume less oil. “The transition will be completed at full speed in four to five years” , enthuses Mr. Dalbiès.
by 2020, Safran plans to produce 2000 LEAP year. At the same time, the CFM56 production is expected to decrease for almost stopped in 2020. Safran should keep pace with Airbus and Boeing, other contractors may falter. The supplier Zodiac, which provides in particular aircraft seats, sputtered that delayed deliveries of the new long-haul Airbus A350. AlixPartners now provides “a natural selection of suppliers because at this level of speed, manufacturers can no longer afford to have delays in deliveries” .
Ultimately, the risk for aircraft manufacturers is seeing companies delay the renewal of their fleets. A sustained low oil makes it competitive again old planes more fuel efficient but the purchase price has long been amortized. Similarly, companies including American, the aging fleets, could return to the market the opportunity to not endure long delays to deliveries of Airbus and Boeing.
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