J-2. The Farnborough Air Show, the world’s largest lounge after Le Bourget, opens Monday, July 11, for a week. If Boeing and Airbus, whose order books are already full, do not expect to record orders this year, the largest rout should be animated between questions on the effects of Brexit, the presence of American F-35 and possible details of a new aircraft program at Boeing, dedicated to the “middle of the market”, the segment between the single-aisle and long-haul. detailed review of the major issues of the show.
Will the orders to go?
Period Is mega-orders bygone ? No expert expected in any case a significant level of orders at Farnborough this year. “We expect a room lackluster, with relatively few orders and a big emphasis on short-term execution challenges,” wrote JP Morgan analysts. Net orders of the two major aircraft manufacturers had already melted from 35% in 2015. The trend is good for party continue. This does not of course mean the total absence of controls Airbus, which is 650 net orders for the year, maxing out at 183 orders at the end of June, which leaves a significant margin
Virgin Atlantic is. negotiations for ten A350-1000, which could be announced at the show. Some contracts A320neo and 737MAX or of Bombardier CSeries, are also likely. Boeing is also close to some place in 747-8 freighter to the Russian Volga-Dnepr, a breath of fresh air to a severe lack of orders. But neither Airbus nor Boeing has interest to force too commercially. Their combined order book exceeded 13,400 aircraft, seven years of production. . A figure that has almost doubled since 2010
Boeing he will launch a new aircraft
Code name: “MoM” for ” middle of the market “. Boeing thinks for several months to a new device designed to fill the void left by the retirement of his 757 on the mid-range, larger aircraft and have a longer range than the single-aisle A320 and 737 type, but smaller that long-haul types 787, A350 or Boeing 777. discussed with 36 airlines to get an idea of the ideal aircraft. Analysts at Buckingham Research evoke a unit of 200-270 seats, the price would be between 65 and 75 million, and whose entry into service would be possible in 2025.
Official launch of the program in Farnborough appears highly unlikely, but the giant Chicago could distill some details of the device. After long denied the interest of the segment, Boeing now estimates the market at 4,000 to 5,000 aircraft. Analysts are more cautious: they feel more needs around 1500-1700 units. Another difficulty: “The unit cost of MoM is comparable to that of a jumbo jet, but Boeing will sell it at a price of single-aisle,” said Buckingham Research
To meet the success of the A321neo. , including his version “long range” that allows him to approach the performance of the 757, Boeing will likely go through an intermediate stage, referred to by Reuters in May: a “muscled” version of its 737 MAX, the 737 MAX 10, with a more powerful engine Leap … derived from that of the A320neo.
are delivery targets tenable?
more than selling aircraft, the main challenge Airbus and Boeing is to successfully deliver the aircraft they have in backlog. The “ramp-up” current production, that is to say, the ramp up is historic: as AlixPartners, single-aisle production will increase by 43% from 2015 to 2019, after having already increased by 27% since 2010. long-haul side, the increase should be 30%. A huge challenge for aircraft manufacturers and their chain of subcontracting, creaking in places: deliveries of A320 NEO (8 only in the first half) are slowed by the GTF engine technical problems of the American Pratt & amp; Whitney. Those of the A350 are sealed by the difficulties of the French Zodiac Aerospace, which is struggling to deliver the aircraft toilet.
Airbus aims to deliver 50 A350s in 2016 thus appears increasingly ambitious . The European aircraft manufacturer has delivered twelve devices in the first half, so only two in June. “This goal remains a challenge for a number of industrial partners experiencing difficulties, stated the boss of Airbus Fabrice Brégier the Tribune on 15 June. It is unfortunate to lose time because the aircraft seats come late or they do not have the required quality or that the toilets are not complete. “
what Brexit effect on aeronautics?
the effect of Brexit on British and European aviation industry remains very uncertain. The only certainty is that London has a lot to lose. The UK has important global champions: Rolls-Royce aircraft engines, BAE Systems in the defense, GKN in aerostructures. The country also has many sites of production and R & amp; D: Airbus has 15,000 employees on site in Filton (engineering, design), Broughton (production wings of all Airbus aircraft) and Stevenage (space). Safran is also present, with 2,800 employees and subsidiaries 9 of 13 sites (nacelles, power systems, landing gear). Thales shows him a dozen sites and 6,500 employees in Belfast missiles or the naval defense (Templecombe, Cheadle).
All this can not, obviously, be erased the stroke of a pen. Airbus has invested nearly two billion pounds in fifteen years in its Broughton site (wing), this is not to close overnight. The Airbus boss Tom Enders Group has also shown reassuring after the referendum, ensuring that the UK has always its place in the Airbus family.
The other industrialists asset British is their tropism US: Boeing is a big customer of the local industry and employs 2,000 people nationwide. Bombardier also a major employer. The Pentagon is a faithful support of BAE, Rolls-Royce, Cobham, Meggitt. It is unclear the Brexit completely seize this British-American collaboration that has nothing to do with EU membership. defense side, the almost total absence of European defense, the UK cooperations are bilaterally, notably with France via the Treaty of Lancaster House in 2010. These agreements are not threatened.
the F-35 he ended up with the difficulties?
After the lurch in 2014 due to technical problems, the F hunter -35 Lockheed Martin will be one of the great attractions of Farnborough. The unit is the airplane of all records with 400 billion dollars of investment, 2,457 aircraft ordered by the US military, a dozen export customers (UK, Netherlands, Italy, Canada, Israel, Australia), the F-35 is by far the biggest Pentagon weapons program.
the problem is that it is also one of the most problematic. The plane, due to multiple technical problems, displays eight years behind schedule and huge costs. The unit cost of the device, according to the GAO, the US equivalent of the Court of Auditors, jumped from 69 million in 2001 to 136,000,000 in 2015. The Pentagon will and spend between 11 and 16 billion year by 2033 to deliver these aircraft to replace the F-16, F-18, Harrier and other A-10 bombers. On the life of the program, the total cost is estimated at even 1,000 billion!
Does brand presentation at Farnborough late setbacks? Not sure. “The program is still about 20% of tests, including complex mission systems testing, which will be tricky,” wrote the GAO in April. Lockheed Martin has yet to solve big problems and software carry out extensive testing of weapons. Delays and technical problems are beginning to weary some customers: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau could jeopardize the participation of Ottawa in the program and reopen a competition
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