It is certainly too early to speak of a “reverse curve”, but it is undeniably good news: after six months of continuous rise, unemployment fell in January. And not a little: the decline is 0.5%, so that France had 19,000 unemployed in late January from December 2014. An indicator that should restore some confidence, but it will-t ? it last
19,000 job seekers in January The Ministry of Labour has made its accounts. late January 2015, France had 3.481 million research workers of employment. A figure indeed high, but down from the previous month: employment center identifies 19,100 fewer unemployed in December, down 0.5%. A significant decline, especially when compared to previous months.
“This improvement resulted from lower inputs and an increase in output to employment or training, “said Labour Minister, François Rebsamen, before adding:” the decline in the number of registered employment center in category A particular regard to young people (7600 or -1.4%), which had not experienced such a decline for over a year. However, it should be cautious and observe over time the monthly developments. The fight against unemployment will not fade and will be prosecuted with determination. ” A speech in line with the Prime Minister, who saw in these figures “an encouragement to pursue” government action.
But 16,100 all categories If the situation improves for category A, that is, ie the unemployed and furthest from the world of work, the picture is more mixed when one takes into account people with reduced activity and therefore always seek full-time employment (Class B and C). By combining these three categories, the number of job seekers increased in January by 0.3% compared to the previous month. .? 16,100 or more people benefiting
Can the good news continue After crossing a zone of severe turbulence, the French economy is a little better: first, because growth slowly resumes (1% expected in 2015 after 0.4% in 2014%), and secondly because the devices that the government has put in place to boost employment and activity in full swing: subsidized jobs, incentives tax in real estate, etc. Not to mention the draft Macron law supposed to “unlock the French economy” but the final version is still uncertain. So many reasons to hope, especially as commodity prices retreat, as growth resumes to our neighbors and the fall of the euro boosts exports.
But several factors lead to the caution. There was first the weak growth that should not be allowed to create enough jobs: according to government projections, it should be around 1% in 2015 while economists estimate that it takes 1.5% growth to create new jobs. But France really needs because of its demographics. Then there is the gloomy forecasts Unedic: the joint body which manages unemployment insurance believes that France should record 104,000 additional jobs seekers during the year 2015. Let 8600 new unemployed per month from What appear the January figures as a precarious calm
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