There are fire. Depending on the growth scenarios considered, more or less optimistic, annual deficits of supplementary pension schemes Arrco (all employees) and AGIRC (frames) could reach 4 or 7 … or € 20 billion until 2040.
Even worse, under certain assumptions, Arrco might have exhausted its reserves in 2025. Agirc is worse, the lack of reserves could occur as early as 2018 … with already less than three months of reserve allocations in 2016.
Agirc and Arrco, the two schemes run by employers and trade unions, will be at the heart of negotiations that opens Tuesday 17 February and is expected to last until the summer. Objective: To save time and, initially, delaying as much as possible depletion of reserves
An overview of issues to deal with and possible solutions
1.. 24 billion deficit Agirc euros and 405 million Arrco
Arrco is the least threatened regime … for now. According to data of the regime, its net deficit reached 405 million euros to 18.1 million contributors. The number of retirees in this scheme was late 2013 to 11,900,000 (9,010,000 relating directly retirement, 1.29 million survivors ‘benefits, and 1.6 million direct accumulating retirement and survivors’ benefits ) for a total amount of benefits paid over 48 billion.
Agirc is much more serious. Its deficit in 2013 reached 1.24 billion euros. However, the amount of the supplementary pension is about 60% of the total amount of pension retired cadres. The Agirc had, in 2013, 4 million contributors and 2.7 million retirees (2.17 million relating directly retirement, 520,000 survivors’ benefits, and 82,000 both).
The Plan paid a total of over 23 billion allowances in 2013. The annual amount of direct Agirc retirement (that is to say outside reversion) amounts to 10,564 euros on average for men (880.33 euros per month) and 4.235 euros for women (about 353 euros per month). The average annual amount of the survivor himself is of 2,565 euros for men, 6,322 euros for women.
All of which leads to Jean-Louis Malys, negotiator and specialist retreats to the CFDT “. The absolute priority is to find a solution for Agirc” In other words, we must take measures to repel the exhaustion threshold reserves for Agirc the time to take control measures required for the longer term.
Towards a delayed retirement?
And each in his own little recipe. Management side, it makes much of the decline in the retirement age. Several tracks have so were explored via projections commissioned GIE which includes Arrco and Agirc. For example, has been studied the case of a gradual decline to 64 (instead of 62 years from the 1955 cohort) the possible retirement age liquidation and the age of the full rate at age 69 (instead of 67): In the best case scenario, the reserves could hold up to 2035
Another projection is to back the retirement age to 65 years from the generation 1961. while maintaining the age of 67 years full rate. This would bring, in the upper range, 1.1 billion in 2017 and over $ 5 billion in 2020. And it pushes the depletion of reserves in 2040.
The employers also considering practicing rebates on Agirc / Arrco pensions. For example, a person with his rights to retire at 62 and choosing to stop working would affect its complementary full retirement at a certain age (64 or 65 or even beyond) . The effort would be temporary. The allowance may be fixed or declining.
But these age measures absolutely not like unions. FO, “There is no question that the pension rights are reduced”, nor to touch the age terminals “.
Pensions survivors are also a possible track. They weigh 15% of total expenditure. The chamber raised the possibility of reducing the rate of survivor benefits to 54%, against 60% today. He also proposed to increase the age for survivor’s pension Arrco 55 to 60 years.
Freeze pensions and / or increase contributions?
Of course, a cure revaluation of pension rules is also on the table. Unions and management had already decided in 2013 to upgrade the pensions in 2013, 2014 and 2015 of a point less than inflation. But the measure has not had the all of the desired effect due to low inflation.
Keep this measure in 2016 and beyond would yield 774 million for both plans in 2017. The 2013 agreement also provides Floor clause whereby the amount of pensions can at worst stagnate but never fall.
It also remains the premiums. This is particularly the argument advanced by the CGT estimated shortage of 2.45 contribution points Agirc above the social security ceiling (currently set at 3,170 euros per month). According to Sylvie Durand, Director of GIE CGT Arrco / Agirc:
“ Such an increase would balance the regime from 2023. If we take the key classic distribution of contribution increases, ie 48% by the employee and 62% by the companies, for a salary of 4,000 euros a month, this would correspond to an increase of 7.40 euros for employees, per month . “
In fact, the social partners can play on two levels. The call rate, first, that in the calculation of the contribution but does not generate points. Currently, the rate is equal to 125%. This is to say that it contributes to 125% but the points are obtained only on the basis of a 100% contribution. Therefore, it may be decided to further increase the rate of call.
The contribution rate then. Already, the national interprofessional agreement of 13 March 2013 anticipated the increase in compulsory contractual contribution rate and Arrco Agirc 0.1 points per year over two years in 2014 and 2015 are given in the table below contributions underway for 2015
For four months, the social partners will therefore examine all parameters. Under the watchful eye of the government could learn from their decisions to change the rules of the basic pension …
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