The unemployment figures for January will be published on Wednesday. They will give a first trend for 2015, when the government finally hopes to “reverse the curve.”
According to economists, unemployment can not fall without growth above 1.5% (illustration). (AFP / PHILIPPE HUGUEN)
Will Unemployment set a new record in France? After a bad year in 2014, the government expects an upturn in 2015. “There is no inexorable rise in unemployment”, launched in early Francois Hollande. Since his election in May 2012, the head of state could not prevent the entry of additional 572,500 unemployed job center.
End 2014, the public employment service accounted 3496000 unemployed without metropolis activity. A record. Including people with reduced activity, 5.52 million people were on the lists of employment center, including overseas.
The most affected by the increase are the more than 50 years, the number increased by 10.4% in 2014 to over 820,000 people and the long-term unemployed, representing four out of ten registered. Their number increased by nearly 10% in 2014. Small business range, over 2.2 million job seekers pointed for at least one year employment center by year-end or three years or more to 705,000 of them.
Given the scale of the phenomenon, Labour Minister François Rebsamen has developed a plan against long-term unemployment, including free training for job seekers carriers of a project eligible training Personal Account (CPF).
However, since early January, said François Rebsamen count on improved economic environment to bring back growth and thus employment. He said the indicators such as “oil price decline,” the euro, the policy of the European Central Bank, “the Juncker plan ‘European investment” show that we can be more optimistic than 2014. “
Meanwhile, INSEE envisaged in its latest forecast a” slight acceleration of activity “in the first half and rise of the Covenant of responsibility and solidarity” would further reduce a little the merchants job losses. ” In total, the state will redistribute the companies about 40 billion euros by 2017 in order to encourage them to invest, hire and train.
While these factors could favor a recovery, economists do not expect an immediate impact on unemployment, which fall, according to them, that beyond 1.5% growth. The government expects growth of 1% in 2015.
In addition to the Institute of Statistics, the net job creation, estimated at 18,000 in the first half, will not be sufficient to absorb new entrants to the labor market, more than 100,000 each year. INSEE anticipates an increase in the unemployment rate by mid-2015 to 10.2% in France and 10.6% with the overseas territories.
But the government also Macron on the bill to “unlock the French economy.” Or his parliamentary path collides with the Socialist deputies “rebellious” and the government had to force its adoption in first reading in the National Assembly by resorting to Article 49-3 of the Constitution. The text contains such a relaxation of Sunday work, reform of labor courts, changing the rules of collective redundancies and measures against fraud to posted workers.
The January figures will be known time will end the meeting between Prime Minister Manuel Valls and labor organizations on a reform of social dialogue in companies that hope creative jobs. He resumed their hands on this thorny issue after the failure of negotiations between the social partners.