The European Commission unveils new economic forecasts on Thursday morning. It expects a growth of 1% this year, with a deficit of 4.1% of GDP. This is the scenario Bercy
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Brussels noted the improvement in economic conditions. The European Commission noted Thursday morning, its growth forecasts for France. The table, as we indicated on Wednesday evening, on a GDP growth of 1% this year and 1.8% in 2016. This is much better than what she expected in November in its economic forecasts fall of 0.7% and 1.5% respectively.
Published at the very time when François Hollande began his press conference, the new figures Commission is good news for the government. After 0.4% in 2014, it expects growth of 1% in 2015 and 1.7% in 2016. Paris thus see his screenplay reinforced by Brussels, benefiting – like its neighbors – the depreciation of the single currency, the sharp fall in oil prices or the dynamism of the US economy.
decline in deficit to 4.1%
A better growth resulting mechanically better tax revenue, the forecast deficit for 2015 is also improved. While feared Brussels in November to see the deficit to worsen to 4.5% of GDP, the Commission now expects a decline of 4.1% after 4.3% in 2014. Again, this is a good news for the government sees its consolidation path of public finances strengthened. Paris table, in fact, also a deficit of 4.1% this year after 4.4% in 2014.
The Commission takes note of a better budget execution ( for the state) last year, the improvement in economic conditions and also incorporated the plan of 3.6 billion euros announced in extremis by Paris to escape a veto over its draft budget 2015. A Plan that his office had not had time to consider in the November forecast.
The end of the suspended approach
In addition, Brussels does not see, at this stage, the deficit back to 3.6% of GDP in 2016, as Paris plans. But Brussels argues policy remains unchanged while Paris plans to around 15 billion savings in 2016. This is also why (it does not include the recessive effect of the savings) that Brussels is more optimistic for the growth in 2016 as the economists consensus (1.3%).
In the end, Paris so easily crossed another milestone in its long standoff with the Commission about the project Budget 2015. The end of the suspension approach the European Commission before except calendar change, released its new recommendation for France Friday, February 27, together with its analysis of macroeconomic imbalances. In Paris, it displays its serenity, convinced that the efforts undertaken in 2014 and 2015 are sufficient to comply minima European commitments.
remains a small gap between Bercy and still endures the Commission on the calculation of the “structural” adjustment (excluding the impact of the economy). If it is not excluded that Brussels requires a little extra effort to France, the recent relaxation of the rules of the Stability Pact should allow it to get a new time and escape punishment. Besides Brussels now has more leveled eyes on Greece.
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