The Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras front of the Greek Parliament on Thursday 5 f & # XE9, February 2015.
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras before the Greek Parliament Thursday, February 5, 2015. – AFP
* Oihana Gabriel
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pressure surge that challenges the European tour of the new leaders of Syriza. Wednesday night, the ECB decided to suspend a scheme so far extended for Greek banks, which allowed them to borrow money from the ECB with lower guarantees that it usually requires. A decision likely to precipitate Greek banks to asphyxiation. But bouncing, the ECB announced Thursday be prepared to give up to 60 billion euros in emergency loans to Greek banks. What plays Mario Draghi, head of the European Central Bank? Return on a two-step ambiguous.

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What message sent with the ECB decision

The ECB considers the Greek banks threaten to become insolvent. “The risk exists, but it does not date of the election of Syriza, Christophe Blot analysis, an economist at the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE). Basically, this decision reverses a little bargaining power. The Greek government gave three months to negotiate, the ECB answers you do not have time! “Says the specialist. At the risk of accelerating a liquidity crisis, a default and an exit from the euro zone.

Blocking or blackmail?

Athens refused to work with the troika (IMF, EU Commission and ECB), the ECB pat on the table. But giving until February 11 European countries to agree, the ECB appears to pressure rather than blocking. And do not cut all the taps. Greek banks continue to benefit from emergency assistance, called ELA, which allows them to receive funds from the Bank of Greece in case of a liquidity crisis. The ECB has also launched a sign of appeasement Thursday by ensuring that it could grant up to 60 billion euros of emergency aid.

After the announcement of this restriction, the index feature of the Greek stock market has lost almost 10%. Bad news that fits in an already tense environment: asphyxiation of the economy, the risk of deflation and a debt of 320 billion euros. Another danger: the banks have a growing need for cash. “Many Greeks, anxious about the economic future, withdrew their savings. About 5 billion euros in December and probably 13 billion in January, “says Janson Nathalie, a specialist in monetary policy in NEOMA Business School. The real risk is panic because if all depositors emptied their accounts, banks could run out of cash and thus become insolvent.

What are the possible scenarios?

The calculation of the ECB could be that Greek banks desperate to pressure Alexis Tsipras that he moderates his economic policy. But back to painful structural reforms would sign a dramatic climbdown for the government just elected on opposition to the austerity program. Vindictive, Alexis Tsipras responded Thursday in Parliament: “Greece will not accept to receive orders, including orders sent by e-mail.” “Even though we are in the fictional economy, one thing we know, the Greeks did not want to leave the eurozone, says Nathalie Janson. If Alexis Tsipras wants to be popular, it does not necessarily have an interest in going to clash with the ECB. The economic scenario that is emerging is that Tsipras gives guarantees on the continuation of reforms and the Troika extends the repayment “