According to initial estimates published by INSEE, the French economy grew by 0.4% on average in 2014, as in 2013. But after a rebound third quarter, activity increased by only 0.1% over the last three months of 2014
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French growth was 0.4% in 2014, according to figures published by INSEE on Friday morning. A similar figure to that of 2013 since public statisticians have revised upward the 2013 results of 0.1, but similar to 2012. And a figure in line with expectations of the government.
However, the whole of 2014, the GDP of the Hexagon has evolved sawtooth which shows the fragility of the activity.
After a first half almost stable (with zero growth in the first quarter and a decrease of 0.1% in the second), the rebound in the third quarter (0.3%) n ‘have not been confirmed in the last three months of the year. In the fourth quarter, in fact, GDP grew by only 0.1%.
The growth in 2013 better than expected
Announced 0.3%, GDP growth in 2013 is a bit stronger than that. INSEE has indeed revised upwards by 0.1 points and now stands at 0.4% growth.
growth forecast of 0.3% in the first quarter
A weakness that will handicap the growth of 2015, although the INSEE and the Banque de France Announce New rebound in the first quarter of this year (with an expected rise of 0.3 to 0.4%).
The government’s objective (growth of 1% in 2015 and 1.8% in 2016), even validated by the forecasts of the European Commission, therefore, remains fragile unless that the acceleration expected in the first three months of the year continues, particularly in the second half.
For now, in its December forecast, INSEE expects growth of 0.3% in the first as in the second quarter. Which would allow the Hexagon display 0, 7% of carry-over at the end of the semester (that is to say, the level of GDP would have remained if the activity spread throughout the second part of the year).
Optimism government
However, the government is optimistic. Traveling Sochaux early February, Prime Minister Manuel Valls, has estimated that France could “probably” do better than 1% growth in 2015, particularly in light of the international situation and of the reforms.
And on Friday morning, after the publication of figures from INSEE, the finance minister, Michel Sapin, said that the conditions were “met for a sharper upturn in activity in 2015. “
” In 2014, growth has been 0.4%, as we had planned and announced at the end of the summer, “said the minister a few reporters, adding: “It’s obviously still too weak but the conditions are met for a sharper upturn in activity in 2015″
And to say that. “economists are wrong! In France 1% is creating jobs. ”
Investment down, slight acceleration in consumption
In detail, figures released Friday by INSEE however, remain alarming in some areas. Starting with the investment. This one, taken as a whole, folds again this year and the decline was even more pronounced. For the second consecutive year, the total investment has declined 1.6% for the whole of 2014 (following a decline of 0.8% in 2013).
According to INSEE, it is primarily household investment that is at the origin of this performance-cons. It has indeed fallen by 5.8% (after a 3.1% decline in 2013), while at the same time the non-financial companies increased slightly: + 0.3% after -0.6%
By cons, total household consumption (wider than just consumption in manufactured goods published monthly by INSEE) stands a little better throughout the year . After rising 0.3% in 2013, she proceeds effect of 0.6% in 2014.
Foreign trade weighed on growth
Finally, throughout the year, domestic demand (consumption, investment and inventories) accounted for most of the growth while the foreign trade weighed on GDP.
In fact, if exports were slightly stronger a year on year (2.7% in 2014 after 2.4%), their progress remains below the acceleration of imports. Their rate has doubled from 2013 to 2014 to be displayed to 3.8%.
Slowdown pronounced in the fourth quarter
Other bad news contained in these figures, even though it was widely anticipated, the last quarter of the year shows a sharp downturn after the rebound observed in September. With a limited increase of 0.1% (in line with the forecast INSEE), GDP at the end of the year did indeed forget the 0.3% in the third quarter and returned at a rate close to that the first six months.
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