The year 2015 will be as gloomy as 2014 in terms of salary increases, predicting several surveys published this autumn. Without growth, with unemployment high and inflation very low, employees are not in a strong position to negotiate.
According to the study released Tuesday by Aon Hewitt, the companies established in France predict increases of 2.6% next year, a rate “extremely low, below average increases in Europe” , observes Vincent Cornet, Director for the compensation of the firm. If this prediction was confirmed, 2015 will be on a par with 2014, slightly below the previous three years, and especially far from pre-crisis 2008 levels (around 3.2% -3.4%). “It is actually always in a context which may be called the crisis” , he said. “Budgets are stalled” , also finds Hay Group, forecasts indicate that 2% for 2015, as in 2014.
“In a very uncertain economic environment, companies do not seem willing to take the risk of a resumption of wage increases. They will have to find other means to stimulate the motivation and commitment of their employees, “ highlights Gildas Poirel, director of customer relations firm.
At Deloitte, prospects are identical (2%). Envelopes “reach that we had not seen since the early 2000 lows,” confirms Philippe Burger, partner. The consulting firm reported in its annual survey released Monday that “even at the height of the economic crisis in 2008, companies were considering increases around 2.4%.”
Claiming a share of CICE
The explanation lies “in part” in the low inflation, fell 0.5% year over year in July, Deloitte advance. To compensate the purchasing power of their employees, companies have less to give up. The historically low price weighs primarily on collective increases. According to Aon Hewitt, the projections are 1.1% for general increases, paid to all employees regardless of their performance, and 2.3% for individual rewards.
In 2014 already, “in view of the low level of inflation, collective increases tend to fall where they still exist,” , observes Denis Falcimagne with responsibility for remuneration to the association HRD Company & amp; Staff. In contrast, “individual increases are made with greater selectivity. It is preferred to increase less employees for not dusting “, he added. ” The level of inflation is not going to help. We do not do many illusions. 2015 will unfortunately in line with previous years, the minimum of minimum “, deplores Regis Dos Santos, president of the National Union of Banks (NBS, affiliated with the CFE-CGC).
intrepid employees who knock at the door of their boss might be tempted to claim a small share of the tax credit competitive employment (CICE). “There will inevitably be tension on the use of CICE” admits that expert. But margins in his negotiations will be very low. When the CICE saves them the costs, companies “prefer to invest to create jobs rather than redistribute tomorrow.”
Not surprisingly, the boss of bosses Pierre Gattaz, advocates greater ‘moderation’ in wages. According to him, there is “great danger” that the lower cost of work permitted by the pact of responsibility (41 billion euros over three years) or otherwise canceled.
Deaf to this argument, the CGT intends “carry iron” on the wage issue, recently warned Eric Aubin, a member of the union leadership. The annual wage negotiations, which will open in October in some companies provide an opportunity for unions’ to challenge companies on their use of the tax credit “, promises to share Dos Santos (SNB). But “we will not put in the balance CICE” as “are not taxes that French should fund increases for certain employees’ , estimated t -there.
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