The agreement “technical” found Tuesday, August 11 on the third Greek memorandum does not solve the impossible political equation which is facing the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. Not that the text submitted Friday morning probably the Vouli, the unicameral chamber of the Greek Parliament, is in danger of being pushed. On the contrary, support a foregone the three parties of the center and right (Potami, Pasok and New Democracy), always ready to accept the conditions of creditors, ensures a majority. But precisely because this text, as the austerity measures adopted in July, will have to go through a de facto alliance with parties.
The majority of Alexis Tsipras on these texts is not without unlike that of previous governments he denounced so: it is a majority “national unity” that creditors use to ensure a docile parliament
paradoxical political situation
<. p> Since July 13 and acceptance of the logic of the troika, the Greek Prime Minister is in a paradoxical and uncomfortable political situation. Officially, the government is still supported by Syriza remains a united party with -with its sovereignist allies right Independent Greeks (ANEL) – an absolute majority in parliament. But this situation is now largely fictitious. Indeed, on issues within the memorandum, the government now depends on the vote – acquired by principle. – Opposition center and right
of the Left Opposition platform
Part of elected Syriza, relative or member of the left platform, which includes the internal opposition to the line defined by the Prime Minister no longer supports these issues, the Government by its vote.
On July 15, 39 of the 146 Syriza MPs did not vote in favor of austerity measures, 32 of which explicitly against. On 23 July, the figure was 36, in a second vote on new measures.
However, the left platform refuses to participate in the overthrow of the government whose members have been dismissed and whose she now rejects most of the action program. As for Alexis Tsipras, he continues to criticize the internal opposition. This balancing act of both parties can not last.
The third memorandum he can reunite Syriza?
The conditions of the memorandum, more moderate than expected, will they be able to bring some of the elected representatives of the left platform in the government fold, or at least in a position more “neutral”, including abstention? This is unlikely. Certainly Alexis Tsipras can claim to have ripped some concessions, such as adaptation of the budgetary targets for 2015 and 2016, but it is unclear members of the left platform applaud this result. For this memorandum forced the country to engage in liberalization reforms and privatizations and was obtained at the price of new austerity measures.
Moreover, the memorandum maintained the country in a logical recessive in this “peonage” debt (ie, harvesting of the country’s wealth for the benefit of creditors) which was denounced by the economist and deputy of the Left platform Costas Lapavitsas. In short, the logic of “marginal gains”, now adopted by the government, is unlikely to appeal to his left.
Maintaining ambiguity?
In theory, the government could long maintain this ambiguity. In a way, maintaining a left opposition within Syriza maintains an alternative to the party. Alexis Tsipras, the benefit is twofold. Without jeopardizing its position Maximos the Greek Matignon, this opposition can continue to keep within the party malcontents. It also helps to have a means of pressure to Alexis Tsipras deal with creditors. If they ask too many concessions, Prime Minister Hellenic always has the possibility of returning to confrontation based on the existence of a pro-Grexit line and anti-austerity Syriza in.
Using the current launch window
In fact, this situation is untenable. For now, the government still enjoys a significant support in public opinion that is mostly relieved to see the prospect of a lull to the banking crisis and a halt to the deterioration in economic conditions. Government can play its gains on the memorandum of August 11 to convince its usefulness and relevance of its strategy of “lesser evil. “But this honeymoon, which is not unlike that of PASOK in 2010, can not last. The effects of the austerity measures and the recovery from the recession, which should last at least a year, will soon be felt. In the state of legitimate frustration of the Greek people, it is not certain that the speech of a Syriza government “bulwark against creditors” takes a long time.
The unpopular government will then take the risk of see the party escape and left platform will take more and more importance within Syriza and the parliamentary group. The government adopted the logic of creditors: the recovery will therefore take place “later” to “medium term”, after the “reforms. “So he needs time and stability to take advantage of its policy and hold during the difficult years. Therefore, it is necessary to rapidly use the current window of opportunity to rein in Syriza and gain a stable parliamentary majority for the next five years.
Both options Alexis Tsipras
In this case, Alexis Tsipras has two options. Either it is fast to play on the popular relief, it is expected in November and negotiations on debt to try to rally some of the minority left playing on eventual success in this field. The first option is probably the most likely, to the extent that Syriza is holding a conference early September and where, on October 1, pensioners will see their pensions burdened the retroactive increase over three months of colon health contributions. In reality, the more he waits, the more the government is exposed to the wrath of a people plunged into recession and austerity. And he knows it. The elections therefore are likely to take place in September, knowing that the legal procedure to trigger complex.
The current room is indeed dissolved after a room and can not be dissolved before one year under normal conditions (Article 41-4 of the Constitution). The only way is that two governments have resigned (Rule 41-1). Alexis Tsipras will then resign and ask the President of the Republic the appointment of a transitional government to be overthrown or resign quickly. In this case, the election must be made within 30 days. In other words, in the fastest option, new elections will take place on 20 or 27 September, at best.
The scenario described by the Prime Minister
The script then could be the Next: Alexis Tsipras causes the dissolution of the Vouli, strengthens its power within Syriza at the Congress that validates his line and is made up of the electoral lists of “faithful. “He leads his campaign on a theme of” lesser evil “: a Syriza government allows the country to reform, combat corruption and clientelism and maintain creditor requirements. It will provide evidence for the agreement of 11 August. With this line, and he hopes to remove the left, which could reject the country’s banking crisis, and right, which is unable to resist creditors, and finally obtain an absolute majority.
The Dilemma left platform
Faced with such a scenario, what will the platform of the left? Staying in Syriza would accept its marginalization. We must therefore consider break and create a new party. A prospect that seems hardly attract yet, despite several demonstrations of force. Leave the first party of the country is probably not easy. Especially since, according to a recent survey, 79% of voters believe that Syriza division within the party is a bad thing. Gather government opponents in breach of approach will not be obvious and many will choose marginalization within Syriza.
Find a leader
While the left platform can build on an existing political organization Syriza is an electoral coalition behind and left parties that form still exist, including the KOE (Greek Communist Organisation) and DEA (Internationalist Workers’ Left). But these parties do not have popular leaders to bring a new party and many members of the left platform are not members of those parties. They are members of Synaspismos, Alexis Tsipras organizing within Syriza. Breaking with this party will not be easy. It will, again, find a leader to deal with the campaign Alexis Tsipras that is sure to play on the need for stability
Two people are able to play this role. President Zoe Kostantopoulou parliament and former Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis.
The second choice would be the most likely carrier for the new party. His “plan B” to set up a parallel currency and resigned July 6 makes him a natural leader of the opposition to the Alexis Tsipras strategy.
But Yanis Varoufakis veut- they play this role? Nothing is less certain. Since his resignation on July 6, he carefully avoids openly criticizing the Alexis Tsipras position while publishing critical texts against creditors and their logic. On 23 July, he had voted for the measures proposed by the government after voting against July 15. Moreover, it is certainly very popular in Greece, but few enough in the left Syriza which is suspicious of his commitment to Europe and its past displayed councilor George Papandreou. But the left Syriza will undoubtedly look twice before choosing a leader whose profile is altogether similar to that of Alexis Tsipras.
As for Zoe Kostantopoulou, its president position Parliament also makes a natural leader of the left opposition. His bad mood displayed against the government since July 13 and the report on the legality of the debt it has asked a commission “for the truth about the debt” give it legitimacy. It is however not appreciated by all, especially for an authoritarian trend. It can nevertheless play a key role if Yanis Varoufakis not the leap.
Enjoy the dissatisfaction?
The question is whether an opposition advocating the break and will be able Grexit not only to influence the next parliament. No survey has yet tested this option, it is true, is difficult to study since the outlines of a new party are far from being defined.
A recent survey Bridging Europe, however, the company stressed the high level of disappointment of Greek voters and voters of Syriza vis-à-vis the choice of Alexis Tsipras: 73% of Greeks reject the agreement with creditors. Importantly, 36% of Greeks surveyed were willing to return to the drachma, against 41% who refused this option and 23% undecided.
An anti-euro Left thus have a voice potential this mass of much more stronger than any party in Greece calls for the immediate release of the euro area countries, even the Communist Party (KKE) and the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn, believe that we must wait. So there is great potential here.
The black scenario for Alexis Tsipras
And it is here that the black scenario would fall to Alexis Tsipras. That left Syriza eventually organize and focus the opposition to the choice of 13 July clearly, by a positioning for the Grexit openly defended by Costas Lapavitsas.
Many voters not being fooled by the effects of the third memorandum, they would choose to break immediately with his logic. In this case, the party may prevent Alexis Tsipras obtain an absolute majority, forcing him to seek an ally of the center and right side. In which case, new elections will bring him anything. It will be a return to the situation worse since will count with a left opposition led her to take advantage of the failure of the memorandum and that it further will depend on the center and the right to stay in power.
Therefore, keep the left parliament platform could be seen as a lesser evil. In reality, that of Alexis Tsipras dilemma reflects the difficulty of his political position after July 13.
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