French growth was zero in the second quarter while had expected an increase of 0.3%, including leaded by consumption, but the economy began to create jobs in the market sector, according to first estimates released Friday by INSEE.
L National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies has revised upwards the growth of gross domestic product in the first quarter, to 0.7% and not 0.6%.
So, l acquis growth for the beginning of the year is 0.8%. This corresponds to annual growth that will be achieved if the last two quarters also showed a stagnation of activity.
INSEE and the Banque de France had been more optimistic in their forecasts on the economic activity in the second quarter (0.3%) and consensus of economists expected an increase of 0.2% of GDP.
However, the French economy created 27,300 jobs in the market sector in the second quarter (+ 0.2%) thanks to services and temporary, or the largest quarterly increase since early 2011. The market employment has stabilized well over a year, with 4,200 cuts stations (-0.0%) on a total of 15.9 million.
These results, surprising a priori as growth paused at the same time, are better than expected.
Still, Prime Minister Manuel Valls said that France should “exceed” 1% growth in 2015, again citing the possibility of an annual growth rate at year-end (comparison Q4 2015 compared to Q4 2014) to 1.5%.
“It’s probably this level that one can reduce unemployment” a-t- he said during a visit to Avignon.
“We had gone very, very high in the first quarter and continued to remain at this high level in the second quarter,” said his side the Finance Minister Michel Sapin the microphone of France Inter. Stressing the growth overhang, he recalled that “beyond the jolts from one quarter to the other, France is taking up their activity in France is recovery growth.”
He said that, throughout the first half, France had “seen its wealth grow in the order of 0.7%, like Germany, just as Germany.”
The first European economy has indeed grown by 0.4% of GDP in the second quarter, also below expectations, after rising 0.3% in the first quarter, said Friday the Federal Office of Destatis statistics.
“There is only one thing to do, lowering social charges on labor costs,” responded to Republicans Thierry Solère.
Traditional Growth Engine in the hexagon, consumption which was well held in the first quarter (+ 0.9%) significantly decelerated in the second (+ 0.1%), largely explaining the zero growth.
Meanwhile, the production of goods and services remained stable (-0.1%) and a significant destocking scored the second quarter. Exports however are rising again (+ 1.7%), but the positive contribution of external trade was not enough to save the French economy to stagnation.
Another major disappointment, investment companies that had initiated a restart in the first quarter (+ 0.6%) slowed down (+ 0.2%). Now it is the sign expected by economists to install France in economic recovery for now mainly driven by external factors: weaker euro, interest rates and falling oil prices.
“This is disappointing, but not alarming, since it reflects the instability of the estimates for each quarter in an uptrend, in particular as demonstrated by surveys of business climate,” said Tullia Bucco , economist at Unicredit in a note.
She said fuel lower prices and tax cuts should support household consumption and different aid to businesses (tax credit competitiveness employment Pact and accountability) “should [they] allow to restore their margins and strengthen their investment.”
Dominic Bryant, economist at BNP Paribas, said his side that the disappointing outcome of the second quarter should be “examined in the light of what happened in the first quarter.” “In the first half, household consumption increased by an average of 0.5%, faster than the 0.3% in the first half of 2014,” said he detailed.
14 / 3:05:43 p.m. 08/2015 – Paris (AFP) – By Lucile MALANDAIN – AFP © 2015
No comments:
Post a Comment