After the turmoil on the currency market and the continued decline in oil prices, Wall Street fell sharply, the index Dow Jones Featured losing 3.12% and the Nasdaq Composite index, which concentrates the technology stocks, 3.52%.
This slump that followed the Asian and European stock markets have all closed sharply lower Friday, the Eurostoxx 50 index losing more than 3%.
“ The recovery in the US and, to a lesser extent, the euro and Japan region, will be offset by the current slowdown in China, low or negative growth in Latin America and Russia, which is recovering very slowly from its recession last year “explains in a note Marie Diron, head of credit policy at Moody’s rating agency.
Main unknown: the magnitude and speed of the slowdown in Chinese growth engine over the last decade in global activity.
“ Uncertainties about the slowdown in China rose “, confirmed the Citi US bank, in a note, predicting that the growth of the second world economy “ remain certainly soft “.
Concern heightened Friday by the announcement of a further decline in manufacturing activity in August to its lowest level in six years, according to the PMI reference calculated by Markit.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) still expects growth of 6.8% this year (against 7.4% in 2014) but many analysts doubt Chinese official figures.
The blur should continue “ at least until the end of the year ,” said Nigel Green, CEO of consulting firm deVere, considering that at that time -There, “ we will have a better view of the risks of a hard landing + + Chinese “.
– “ Little cold shower ” –
“ The devaluation was seen as a last weapon that the Chinese government could not revive its growth , “said AFP Jean-Louis Mourier, economist at Aurel BGC broker.
This Chinese slowdown weighed on the commodities market, where prices have fallen sharply, particularly penalizing emerging markets, including Latin America.
“ Many countries suffer because they depend on the export of raw materials including ores ,” detailed Mr. Mourier.
Brazil, seventh world economy sinks into recession with inflation and rising unemployment and a currency that unscrews, difficulties which are added a political crisis.
At the same time, Europe has been slow to take over from the growth of emerging countries.
“ After an excess of optimism is a little cold shower ,” said economist broker Aurel BGC before nuance: “ this not as the world economy is deteriorating as the international environment is not improving as expected “.
The growth slowed slightly in the second quarter in the euro zone to 0.3% (against 0.4% in the first quarter), largely because of the underperformance against France remained at a stationary, while Germany was less than expected, according to first estimates released August 14 by the European statistics office Eurostat.
If the recovery is not fast enough to taste analysts, however, on the long term prospects are quite encouraging for the euro area.
The growth of private activity accelerated in August in the euro area, including through Germany and despite the slowdown in France, according to an estimate published Friday by Markit.
“ The euro is undervalued and this will help strengthen the recovery of the European economy ,” said Nigel Green, which also expects the price of oil down as positive for the European economies.
The single European currency also went up significantly against the dollar, which open Friday at 2100 GMT at 1.1388 dollars, up more than 1.30% on the day.
The price of black gold continued their decline Friday, stopping just above the threshold of $ 40 a barrel.
Another pressure factor to the decline in financial markets, analysts seem confused by the US monetary policy.
In the minutes of their last meeting, officials of the central bank of the United States did not bring expected by markets indications on when they decide to raise rates, uncertainty that investors dislike.
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