Friday, August 21, 2015

Greece: Tsipras puts his mandate at stake – Les Echos

Agitation never stops in Greece. Hardly he has received the country on Thursday morning, a first tranche of 13 billion euros on the new aid plan of 86 billion granted by the Europeans, Alexis Tsipras launched into the afternoon in another battle, this time political. The Prime Minister finally decided to surrender his mandate at stake quickly resigning to call for new elections in a television ad Thursday night. “We have negotiated long and hard, we resisted the blackmail. [...] The resistance of our people has become an emblem for other European countries, “he said, asking again the confidence of voters to implement its program. Following his resignation, parliamentary elections should be held on September 20, barely nine months after the previous one which had brought to power Syriza, allied to right-wing sovereignist ANEL.



Everything but a surprise

The organization of new elections in the fall is not in itself a surprise. Acceptance in July by Alexis Tsipras new painful measures (additional savings, privatization …) for keeping Greece in the euro area has caused considerable tension within Syriza. These increased further last week when were disclosed all conditions (liberalization of entire sectors of the economy, pension reforms and labor market etc.) attached to the new aid of 86 billion euros .

These have been negotiated and accepted by Alexis Tsipras, and creditors of Greece have all praised the new, more constructive spirit of their interlocutor. A significant change compared to the situation early July when Greek Prime Minister had called and got a referendum rejects the claims of creditors. Obviously, this new political line is struggling to move from the left wing Syriza. In the vote in Parliament last week, 43 party MPs (out of 149) had abstained or voted against the new aid plan. These defections in fact make obsolete the political majority Alexis Tsipras. A vote could allow it to strengthen its authority, while it remains popular and his party is leading in the polls. These have however been made before were announced draconian conditions of the new aid plan.



Technical transitional government?

Should he organize these laws expected in September or October or November? The risk by choosing the fastest option is that this political unrest postpones until later the reforms promised by Athens in exchange for help. Now it is urgent: some of the financing (3 billion) will be disbursed in October if the reforms are to go, and then an audit will be conducted by Europeans. The measures will likely be conducted by a technical transitional government.

In Brussels, however, it plays down the situation. “Fast elections in Greece can be a way to broaden support for [reform] program which has just been signed on behalf of Greece by Prime Minister Tsipras’ , tweeted Martin Selmayr , the influential chief of staff Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission. The campaign will also help to clarify the political line of Alexis Tsipras, who gave in August substantial pledges for the viability of a plan he does “not believe” in July.



Renaud Honoré
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