Growth in the second quarter holiday – Liberation

Cold shower for the government. Growth in France was zero in the second quarter, even as INSEE foresaw in its latest monthly report in June, a 0.3% increase in activity. One small consolation, the slight revaluation of the figures for the beginning of the year, with 0.7% growth between January and March, against 0.6% estimated until now. Result: the growth overhang, that is to say the level of activity if the last two quarters show, too, stagnation, stood at 0.8%

. In detail, it is household consumption that makes the economy falter in the second quarter: its strong deceleration (+ 0.1%) after a strong first quarter, pulls down domestic demand. Involved, including the decline in energy consumption, clothing and medicines. A setback that neither businesses nor governments will manage to offset slowing domestic demand too. Only exports (+ 1.7%) come limit the damage in the first quarter, absorbing both the slowdown in domestic cons, but the negative change in inventories. (- 0.4%)

“Reprise beautiful and well engaged”

A bad performance that has not dented the optimism of the executive. Far from there. “These figures encourage us to stay the course and continue our efforts to boost the recovery of growth and create more jobs” , said the Prime Minister, Manuel Valls, Live Avignon . “Recognize [...] that the growth figure of 2 ^th quarter, disappointing at first sight, comes after a 1 ^st dynamic quarter, and that beyond the jolts from one quarter to the next, inevitable in any restart phase, the recovery is indeed committed in France “ says, for his part, the Minister of Finance in forum in World

And Michel Sapin bragging, too, economic policy hitherto pursued. “This result (sic), it is not only the result of a favorable ‘astral alignment “- low oil, low interest rates, low euro. It is primarily the result of a deliberate policy: with the competitive employment tax credit (CICE) and the first step of the Covenant of responsibility and solidarity, it is 20 billion euros have already been returned to companies “. Now it is true that corporate margins finally restored (31.1% in the 1 ^st quarter), these have not yet decided to make the economy benefit. Their investments slowed sharply in the second quarter (0.2% after 0.6%), obérant a clear recovery of the business.

The 1% target for 2015 remains achievable

In the end, the official target of a 1% growth this year remains within reach. But little more than expected – 1.5% according Valls Wednesday – appears, for the time away. A little extra that would allow the Executive to stabilize at large subsidized jobs reinforcement, the famous curve of unemployment, which is now indexed on the candidacy of François Hollande in 2017.

Little ray of Hope: data on employment show – contradict the growth figures – an increase of 27 300 jobs in the market sector in the second quarter. But still a slight decline year on year (- 4500). When it does not …